近十年来江汉平原钉螺面积时空变化规律研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 22:35

  本文关键词： 钉螺面积 四分位法 线性倾向率 生态防控　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年19期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探讨近十年来江汉平原各县市钉螺面积时空变化特征。方法利用2003-2016年江汉平原16县市钉螺面积资料,基于四分位法、线性倾向估计、经验正交函数(EOF)分解方法,分析江汉平原近十年来钉螺面积时空变化特征及其主要空间分布型。结果江汉平原北部县市钉螺面积中位数均低于1 000hm2,南部县市在5 000hm2以上,钟祥、潜江和荆门钉螺面积四分位距在380hm2以上;江汉平原钉螺面积在2010年前呈逐年下降趋势,此后维持稳定并从2014年开始下降;江汉平原北部县市钉螺面积变化线性倾向率为正值,南部县市均为负值,钟祥和蔡甸钉螺面积变化线性倾向率分别为38.50hm2/a和-69.79hm2/a,是江汉平原钉螺面积增减速率最快地区;钉螺面积EOF分解前两个特征向量场方差贡献分别为66.6%和13.3%,空间场为"南正北负"型和"+、-、+"三极型。结论江汉平原北部县市常年钉螺面积较小,南部县市常年钉螺面积较大;钟祥、潜江和荆门钉螺面积波动幅度较大;江汉平原南部和北部钉螺面积变化趋势有明显差异。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the recent ten years all counties and cities in Jianghan plain area of snail temporal and spatial changes. Using the method of 16 counties in the area of snail data of 2003-2016 years of Jianghan Plain, four quantile method based on linear trend estimation, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition method, analysis of Jianghan Plain in recent ten years and its spatial temporal and spatial variations of the snail distribution area type the northern city of Oncomelania in Jianghan Plain. The area median was less than 1 000hm2, the southern counties and cities in more than 5 000hm2, Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen four points from the snail area above 380hm2; Jianghan plain area of snail in 2010 before declining trend, then remained stable and began to decline from 2014; the northern city of Jianghan plain area of snail change the linear trend rate is positive, the southern counties of Zhongxiang and Caidian were negative, snail area change linear tendency rate was 38.50hm2/a and -69.79hm2 /a, is the The plain area of snail increased the fastest deceleration rate area; the area of snail EOF decomposition two feature vector field variance were 66.6% and 13.3%, the space field as a "negative in North" and "+, -, +" triode type. Conclusion the northern Jianghan Plain counties perennial snail area small, South County perennial snail a large area of Zhongxiang, Qianjiang and Jingmen; the snail area fluctuates greatly; the trend of Southern Jianghan Plain and north area of snail changes have obvious difference.

【作者单位】： 武汉区域气候中心;中国科学院测量与地球物理研究所;
【基金】：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201409) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571487)
【分类号】：Q958;R184.38
【正文快照】： 江汉平原位于湖北省中南部,地跨长江、汉江流域,湖泊众多、水网密集,是湖北省血吸虫的唯一中间宿主——湖北钉螺(以下简称钉螺)的主要孽生地,截至2016年,江汉平原16县市钉螺面积约为3105.17hm2,占湖北省实有钉螺面积的60.0%以上。随着全球气候变暖、洪涝等极端气候事件增多,钉，

本文编号：1485645