2005-2011年中国大陆地区淋病疫情时空聚类研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 22:40

本文选题：淋病　切入点：地理信息系统　出处：《中国皮肤性病学杂志》2014年03期

【摘要】：目的探讨2005-2011年中国大陆地区淋病疫情的时空分布特征。方法以2005-2011年全国31个省、自治区和直辖市(未包括台湾省、香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区)的淋病疫情监测数据和人口信息为研究对象,利用ArcGIS 9.3软件建立地理信息数据库,采用GeoDa 0.95i和SaTScan 9.1.1软件进行全局、局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描聚类分析,确定淋病时空热点区域。结果 2005-2011年全国淋病病例时空上呈明显聚集性分布,各年度全局型空间自相关系数均有统计学意义(P0.01)。局部自相关系数提示2005-2010年江苏、上海、浙江处于(高,高)区域,2006年开始(高,高)区域增加了福建省。2006-2010年新疆处于(高,低)区域。2007,2009-2010年,北京处于(高,低)区域。时空扫描分析发现所有的聚类时间段均集中在2005-2007年。一级聚类区域位于长三角地区(江苏、上海和浙江),相对危险度为4.20;二级聚类区域包含五个区域,分别是广东、广西与海南地区、北京地区、宁夏地区、新疆地区、重庆地区,相对危险度在1.45～2.25之间。结论淋病发病存在明显的时空聚集,各时空聚集区将为探索有针对性的防控措施提供参考。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of epidemic China, gonorrhea area for 2005-2011 years to 2005-2011 years. The country's 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government (not including Taiwan Province, Hongkong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) the gonorrhea epidemic surveillance data and demographic information as the research object, using ArcGIS 9.3 software to establish geographic information the database, using GeoDa 0.95i and SaTScan 9.1.1 software for global autocorrelation analysis and spatial-temporal cluster analysis to determine the local space, time and space. Results of the 2005-2011 hot spots of gonorrhea national gonorrhea cases showed significant spatial aggregation distribution, the annual global spatial autocorrelation coefficients were statistically significant (P0.01). The local autocorrelation coefficients suggest that 2005-2010 Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang (in high, high), 2006 (high, high) region increased in Fujian Province in.2006-2010 (high, low) in Xinjiang area Domain.20072009-2010, in Beijing (high, low). Spatial scanning analysis showed that the clustering time all concentrated in 2005-2007 years. A cluster area is located in the Yangtze River Delta region (Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang), the relative risk was 4.20; two level clustering region consists of five regions, namely Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan area, Beijing area, Ningxia area, Xinjiang area, Chongqing area, the relative risk in 1.45 ~ 2.25. Conclusion gonorrhea has obvious spatial aggregation, the space-time area will be gathered to explore to provide reference to the prevention and control measures.

【作者单位】：中国医科大学基础医学院生物医学工程系;中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室;中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71073175)
【分类号】：R759.2;R181.8

【参考文献】