蒙特卡罗方法在健康风险评估中的应用

发布时间：2018-04-03 09:39

本文选题：蒙特卡罗法　切入点：危险性评估　出处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2014年04期

【摘要】：传统的人群健康风险评估主要开展确定性分析。然而健康风险因素具有多变量、随机性、时变性、非线性等特点,往往给健康风险评价带来不确定性问题。健康风险评价的不确定系统分析方法中,以概率统计为核心的蒙特卡罗方法因建模预测的可靠性、高效性和适用性逐渐在各个领域得到应用。该方法主要通过随机模拟、统计试验,在假设变量概率分布模型的基础上抽样,从而得到可靠的系统近似值。如何生成优质的随机数、开展有效的随机抽样是应用的关键。将蒙特卡罗方法与一般数值方法结合,可弥补其在小概率或大系统问题中运算速度较慢、计算结果偏低等不足,更高效、更准确地评估、预测风险,对疾病控制评价及卫生政策的修订具有广泛的应用前景。
[Abstract]:Health risk assessment is mainly carried out the traditional deterministic analysis. However, with many variables, health risk factors of stochastic, time-varying, nonlinear characteristics, often to the health risk assessment of uncertainty problem. The system analysis method of uncertainty in health risk assessment, Monte Carlo method based on probability statistics as the core of the reliability prediction model. The efficiency and applicability are gradually applied in various fields. The method is mainly through stochastic simulation, statistical sampling test, based on the probability distribution model variables, so as to obtain the reliable approximation system. How to generate random number quality, carry out random sampling effectively is the key to apply the Monte Carlo method combined with the general will. The numerical method, can make up for the slower processing speed in low probability or large system problems, the calculation results is low, more efficient, more accurately. Assessment, risk prediction, disease control evaluation and health policy revision have broad application prospects.

【作者单位】：南华大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;北京中医药大学基础医学院循证医学中心;
【基金】：国家863项目(2012AA063501) 南华大学人文社科委托研究课题(2011XWT05,2012XWT06,2011XWT04)
【分类号】：R181.3

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