2005-2014年海门市居民肺结核发病情况和今后5年变化趋势的预测

发布时间：2018-04-05 15:03

本文选题：活动性肺结核　切入点：涂阳肺结核　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年18期

【摘要】：目的了解海门市2005-2014年居民肺结核流行情况及变化趋势,为科学防控提供依据。方法收集整理2005-2014年海门市居民活动性肺结核及涂阳肺结核数据,分析发病的性别、年龄、年份变化情况,并使用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行拟合和预测。结果海门市2005-2014年居民活动性肺结核报告发病率60.10/10万,男性92.00/10万,女性32.08/10万,男性高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ~2=1 508.771,P0.001),涂阳报告发病率28.86/10万,男性45.84/10万,女性13.93/10万,男性高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ~2=890.613,P0.001)。活动性肺结核和涂阳肺结核报告发病率均随年龄组的升高呈上升趋势(χ_活~2=7 518 379.89,P0.001,χ_(涂阳)~2=7 847 151.74,P0.001)。10年间,海门市活动性肺结核和涂阳肺结核报告发病率呈下降趋势,活动性肺结核灰色模型预测函数为Y=-506.64-0.01671t+578.46(t=0,1,2,……,n),涂阳肺结核灰色模型预测函数为Y=-235.20-0.2364t+277.13(t=0,1,2,……,n),预测到2019年,海门市活动性肺结核报告发现率将下降至35.56/10万,涂阳肺结核报告发病率将下降至10.88/10万。结论海门市人群活动性肺结核、涂阳肺结核发病率整体呈下降趋势,男性高于女性,随年龄增大而升高,中老年男性是防控的重点人群。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the prevalence and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Haimen City from 2005 to 2014, and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control.Methods the data of active pulmonary tuberculosis and smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Haimen City from 2005 to 2014 were collected and analyzed. The changes of sex, age and year of the disease were analyzed, and the grey model was used to fit and predict the incidence of active pulmonary tuberculosis and smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis.The difference was statistically significant (蠂 2: 890.613, P 0.001).The reported incidence of active pulmonary tuberculosis and smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis increased with the increase of age group (蠂 _ 2 + 7 518 379.89 P 0.001, 蠂 ~ 2 (smear positive tuberculosis 7 847 151.74) P 0.001 路10 years, the reported incidence of active pulmonary tuberculosis and smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Haimen City showed a downward trend during the past 10 years.Conclusion the incidence of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis in the population of Haimen City is decreasing. The incidence of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis in males is higher than that in females and increases with the increase of age. The middle-aged and elderly men are the key population in prevention and control.
【作者单位】：江苏省南通市疾病预防控制中心;江苏省海门市卫生和计划生育委员会;
【分类号】：R181.3;R521

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