2006-2015年德州市法定传染病疫情变化趋势及预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 03:32

本文选题：山东德州 + 法定传染病　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：研究背景传染病一直是威胁人类健康的大敌。传染病流行规律的认识和防制措施的制定有赖于对历史监测资料的分析。山东省德州市自2006年建立传染病网络直报体系以来,法定传染病报告管理工作得到不断的发展和完善,为探讨德州市本地传染病发生、发展规律提供了丰富的数据支持。德州市交通发达,流动人口较多,发生聚集/暴发疫情的风险较大,因此分析德州市法定传染病的流行规律,对于控制疫情发展,防止或及时处置聚集/暴发疫情,保障人群健康具有十分重要的意义。研究目的了解和掌握德州市法定传染病流行病学规律,探讨重点传染病的防制要点,初步预测2016年部分重点传染病发病情况,为卫生行政部门传染病防制和卫生应急工作部署提供参考依据。研究方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统下载2006-2015年法定传染病数据,分析部分重点传染病疫情规律,利用移动平均数法和加权平均数法对2016年部分重点传染病疫情进行预测,使用Excel2010和SPSS19.0对数据进行统计分析。研究结果1总体疫情特征:2006-2015年,德州市报告法定传染病病例数呈现缓慢上升趋势,共报告病例123748例,年均发病率221.01/10万。其中,无甲类传染病报告,报告乙类传染病60453例,报告丙类传染病63295例。报告死亡病例237例,年均死亡率为0.42/10万。5-6月份为发病高峰,占29.51%,男性77507例,女性46241例。职业分布以农民为主。2重点传染病疫情特征:1)手足口病发病呈现明显的季节性特征,5-6月份达发病高峰(占54.48%),地区分布为德城区病例数最多。男性25037例,女性14572例。发病年龄主要集中在5岁以下。2)肺结核发病呈现逐年下降趋势。肺结核发病以1月份发病最多。男性16779例,女性9168例。职业分布以农民最多。3)2006-2015年德州市乙肝发病21537例,丙肝1985例,未分型肝炎749例,戊肝263例,甲肝223例。乙肝发病男性13530例,女性8007例,职业分布以农民最多。丙肝发病呈现逐年上升趋势,病例主要集中在禹城市。4)其它感染性腹泻病发病呈现逐年上升趋势,6月份发病最多,男性6959例,女性4456例,职业分布以散居儿童最多。5)流行性感冒发病呈现逐年上升趋势。发病月份以12月份发病最多,男性4230例,女性3226例,职业分布以农民最多。3预测结论:预测2016年手足口病、肺结核、乙肝、其它感染性腹泻病、流行性感冒发病数分别为5902例、1890例、3644例、2449例和1800例。结论与建议德州市法定传染病总体疫情平稳。手足口病呈现周期性流行,其它感染性腹泻病、流感、乙肝报告发病逐渐增多,肺结核发病数逐渐下降。建议继续巩固和扩大德州市免疫规划疫苗接种,完善教育、农业、畜牧、工商等部门间传染病联防联控工作机制,加强健康教育,提高各级医疗机构传染病诊疗和应对能力。
[Abstract]:Background Infectious diseases have been a major threat to human health. The understanding of epidemic law of infectious diseases and the formulation of prevention and control measures depend on the analysis of historical surveillance data. Since the establishment of network direct reporting system of infectious diseases in Dezhou City of Shandong Province in 2006, the report management of statutory infectious diseases has been continuously developed and improved, which provides abundant data support for the discussion of the occurrence and development law of local infectious diseases in Dezhou City. Dezhou has developed traffic, large floating population, and high risk of gathering / outbreak. Therefore, to control the epidemic development and prevent or deal with the aggregation / outbreak in time, the epidemic law of statutory infectious diseases in Dezhou is analyzed. It is of great significance to protect the health of people. Objective to understand and master the epidemiological law of statutory infectious diseases in Dezhou City, to discuss the key points of prevention and control of key infectious diseases, and to predict the incidence of some key infectious diseases in 2016. To provide reference for infectious disease prevention and control of health administrative departments and health emergency arrangements. Methods through the China Disease Prevention and Control Information system (CDC), the epidemic data of some key infectious diseases from 2006 to 2015 were downloaded, and the epidemic patterns of some key infectious diseases were analyzed. The method of moving average and weighted average were used to predict the epidemic situation of some key infectious diseases in 2016. Excel2010 and SPSS19.0 are used to analyze the data. Results 1 from 2006 to 2015, the number of reported cases of statutory infectious diseases in Dezhou City showed a slow upward trend, with a total of 123748 cases reported, with an average annual incidence of 221.01 / 100 thousand. Among them, 60453 cases of Class B infectious diseases and 63295 cases of Class C infectious diseases were reported. A total of 237 deaths were reported, with an average annual mortality rate of 0.42 / 100,000.May-June as the highest incidence rate, accounting for 29.51%, with 77507 males and 46241 females. The occupational distribution was characterized by the epidemic characteristics of 2 key infectious diseases mainly among farmers: 1) the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease showed obvious seasonal characteristics and reached its peak in May and June (54.48%), with the largest number of cases distributed in Decheng District. There were 25037 males and 14572 females. The onset age of pulmonary tuberculosis is mainly under 5 years old. 2) the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is decreasing year by year. Tuberculosis is the most common disease in January. There were 16779 males and 9168 females. The occupational distribution included 21537 cases of hepatitis B, 1985 cases of hepatitis C, 749 cases of unclassified hepatitis, 263 cases of hepatitis E and 223 cases of hepatitis A in Dezhou from 2006 to 2015. The incidence of hepatitis B was 13530 males and 8007 females. The incidence of hepatitis C increased year by year, and the cases mainly concentrated in Yucheng. 4) the incidence of other infectious diarrhoeal diseases increased year by year. In June, there were 6959 males and 4456 females. The occupational distribution was the highest among scattered children. 5) the incidence of influenza increased year by year. The most common month was December, with 4230 males and 3226 females. The occupational distribution was as follows: forecast of hand, foot and mouth disease, tuberculosis, hepatitis B and other infectious diarrhoeal diseases in 2016. The incidence of influenza was 5902 cases, 1 890 cases and 3 644 cases respectively. There were 2 449 cases and 1800 cases respectively. Conclusion and suggestion the epidemic situation of legal infectious diseases in Dezhou is stable. Hand-foot-mouth disease showed a periodic epidemic, other infectious diarrhea, influenza, hepatitis B report increased gradually, the number of tuberculosis gradually decreased. It is suggested that we should continue to consolidate and expand immunization planning vaccination in Dezhou, improve the mechanism of interdepartmental joint prevention and control of infectious diseases, such as education, agriculture, animal husbandry, industry and commerce, strengthen health education, and improve the ability of medical institutions at all levels to diagnose, treat and respond to infectious diseases.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R181.8

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