基于传染病自动预警信息系统的“流行标准”最优化选择分析

发布时间：2018-05-06 16:23

本文选题：传染病自动预警信息系统 + 流行标准　；参考：《中国卫生统计》2017年02期

【摘要】：目的通过纳入"流行标准"备选模型,探讨各模型对不同传染病类型预警阈值设定的适用性,进而优选出各传染病的适宜预警阈值,改善预警效果。方法按照控制图预警模型原理,分别计算各重点传染病2014年周病例数指定的12个百分位数,然后分别应用备选"流行标准"对各重点传染病2014年相应周的疫情进行预警,通过比较备选模型和控制图预警模型预警结果,优选出预警阈值,然后依据2015年传染病聚集性疫情的实际发生情况验证预警界值预警效果。结果纳入松江区3种重点传染病,流行性腮腺炎整体疫情呈下降趋势,定为"TYPE A",C2、累积和控制图(CUSUM)和季节趋势模型(SM)推荐P_(50),"μ+2σ"推荐P_(80);流行性感冒整体疫情平稳,定为"TYPE B",C2、CUSUM和SM推荐P_(40),"μ+2σ"推荐P_(75);猩红热整体疫情呈上升趋势,为"TYPE C",C2和SM推荐P_(90),CUSUM推荐P75,"μ+2σ"推荐P_(80)。结论 C2、CUSUM和SM适合"TYPE A"型传染病,推荐预警阈值低,结果保守;4种模型均适合"TYPE B"型传染病,但μ+2σ的预警的成本效益好;4种模型也均适合"TYPE C"型传染病,但倾向于推荐大的预警阈值,建议根据传染病社会影响和现有防治水平对预警阈值进行适当调整。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the applicability of each model in setting early warning threshold for different infectious diseases by incorporating the "epidemic criteria" model, and then to select the appropriate early warning threshold for each infectious disease and improve the early warning effect. Methods according to the principle of early warning model of control chart, 12 percentiles of the number of cases of each major infectious disease in 2014 were calculated, and then the epidemic situation of each key infectious disease in the corresponding week of 2014 was predicted by using the alternative "epidemic criteria", respectively. By comparing the early warning results of the alternative model and the control chart early warning model, the early warning threshold was selected, and then the early warning effect was verified according to the actual occurrence of infectious disease agglomeration in 2015. Results the overall epidemic situation of mumps showed a downward trend in three major infectious diseases in Songjiang District. It was designated as "TYPE A" C2, CUSUM (cumulative and control chart) and SMC (seasonal trend model), and "渭 2 蟽" recommended Past80, and the overall epidemic situation of influenza was stable. "TYPE B" C2CUSUM and SM, "渭 2 蟽", "渭 2 蟽" and "渭 2 蟽", respectively, showed an upward trend in the overall epidemic situation of scarlet fever, and recommended P75 for "TYPE C" and "渭 2 蟽" for "P75" and "渭 2 蟽" for "TYPE C" and SM, respectively. Conclusion C2CUSUM and SM are suitable for "TYPE A" infectious diseases, and the recommended early warning threshold is low. The results show that the four conservative models are suitable for "TYPE B" infectious diseases, but the four models of 渭 2 蟽 early warning are also suitable for "TYPE C" infectious diseases. However, it tends to recommend a large threshold of early warning, and it is suggested that the threshold should be adjusted according to the social impact of infectious diseases and the current level of prevention and treatment.
【作者单位】：复旦大学公共卫生学院;松江区疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室开放基金(GW2015-1)
【分类号】：R181

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