长春市肾综合征出血热流行趋势分析

发布时间：2018-05-11 23:02

本文选题：流行性出血热/肾综合征出血热 + 流行趋势　；参考：《吉林大学》2006年硕士论文

【摘要】： 肾综合征出血热又称流行性出血热,其分布广、发病多、病死率高,是一种严重危害人民健康的自然疫源性疾病。世界上已有30多个国家发现肾综合征出血热,我国是受汉坦病毒危害最为严重的国家,大陆的31个省、市、自治区均有病例发生,台湾也有汉坦病毒感染病例报告。近年来,新疫区不断出现,并时有暴发流行,老疫区的类型也有所变化,吉林省HFRS发病率明显升高,形势不容乐观。出血热病例以农村青壮年人群为主,不仅对人民身体健康和生命安全造成危害,而且对社会经济发展造成严重影响,已经成为一个重要的公共卫生问题。本研究工作主要分析长春市1990-2005年肾综合征出血热的流行特征及其变化趋势;根据人间疫情动态和鼠情监测结果,分析长春市HFRS疫区型别演变及其变化趋势;利用监测资料建立马尔可夫链模型预测未来五年内肾综合征出血热流行趋势,为制订有效的预防控制策略和措施提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), also called epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF), is a kind of natural epidemic disease, which is characterized by wide distribution, high morbidity and high mortality. Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome has been found in more than 30 countries in the world. China is the country most seriously affected by Hantavirus. There are cases in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in mainland China, and there are also reports of Hantavirus infection in Taiwan. In recent years, new epidemic areas have been emerging, and outbreaks have occurred from time to time, and the types of old epidemic areas have also changed. The incidence of HFRS in Jilin Province has obviously increased, and the situation is not optimistic. Haemorrhagic fever (HFRS), mainly among the young and middle-aged in rural areas, not only endangers the health and safety of the people, but also has a serious impact on the social and economic development. It has become an important public health problem. This study mainly analyzed the epidemic characteristics and trends of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Changchun from 1990 to 2005.According to the results of human epidemic situation and surveillance of rat situation, the evolution and trend of HFRS epidemic area in Changchun were analyzed. The Markov chain model was established to predict the epidemic trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in the next five years, which provided a scientific basis for the formulation of effective preventive and control strategies and measures.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：R512.8;R181.3

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