多AGENT技术在艾滋病性传播模拟中的研究与应用

发布时间：2018-06-11 16:56

本文选题：空间分析 + 复杂适应系统　；参考：《云南师范大学》2009年硕士论文

【摘要】： 艾滋病在全世界的广泛流行已成为严重的公共卫生问题、社会问题、甚至是政治问题。目前,艾滋病正从高危人群向普通人群扩散,艾滋病的防治工作已迫在眉睫,急需多种手段并用来研究艾滋病的传播与控制问题,以期提高的艾滋病防治效果。论文以艾滋病传播的病理学特征和复杂适应系统理论作为研究背景,通过艾滋病传播的时空信息机理的研究,进而探索艾滋病性传播途径的动态模拟和表达技术。在学习和总结前人研究成果的基础上,论文采用多Agent技术完成了艾滋病性传播途径的动态模拟和研究。主要研究内容包括以下几方面: 首先,论文阐述了艾滋病传播的病理学原理,在分析比较医学、公共卫生学、社会学和生物学等不同学科的研究出发点和进展后,结合复杂适应系统相关理论与方法,认为采用“自下而上”的多Agent模拟技术从信息科学入手,通过基于个体的微观层次模拟可以很好地反映宏观层次的整体“涌现”情况。因此,最终形成了基于多Agent技术来模拟艾滋病性传播的研究思路。然后,通过艾滋病性传播的时空信息机理的研究,抽取除了相关影响因子,如性伴侣人数、是否使用安全套、自愿检测趋向、人群流动强度等,为模型提供了基本的输入参数,完成了概念模型的初步设计。艾滋病性传播的时空信息机理不仅是多Agent技术建模的理论基础,更是研究的现实依据和意义所在。最后,通过基于多Agent技术模拟模型的搭建,采用Repast模拟平台和Java高级编程语言,并利用ArcGIS软件完成了研究区地图数据的处理,最终实现了基于栅格空间的艾滋病性传播模型与ArcGIS软件的集成。研究成果具有一定的实用性,但由于时间和水平有限,论文未能完成基于GIS平台的软件平台的构建,这也是项目下一步研究的重点之一。
[Abstract]:The prevalence of AIDS in the world has become a serious public health problem, social problems, and even political problems. At present, AIDS is spreading from the high risk group to the general population. The prevention and treatment of AIDS is imminent. It is urgent to study the spread and control of AIDS by various means, in order to improve the effect of AIDS prevention and control. Based on the pathological characteristics of AIDS transmission and the theory of complex adaptive system, this paper explores the dynamic simulation and expression technology of AIDS transmission path through the study of the mechanism of space-time information of AIDS transmission. On the basis of studying and summarizing the previous research results, the dynamic simulation and research of HIV / AIDS transmission pathway were completed by using multi-Agent technology. The main research contents include the following aspects: firstly, the paper expounds the pathological principle of AIDS transmission, after analyzing the research starting point and progress of different subjects such as comparative medicine, public health, sociology and biology, etc. Combined with the theories and methods of complex adaptive systems, it is considered that the "bottom-up" multi-Agent simulation technology can reflect the "emergence" of the whole macro-level through individual-based micro-level simulation from the view of information science. Therefore, the idea of simulating AIDS sexual transmission based on multiple Agent technology was formed. Then, through the study of space-time information mechanism of AIDS sexual transmission, we extracted the related factors, such as the number of sexual partners, whether or not to use condoms. Voluntary detection trend and population flow intensity provide the basic input parameters for the model and complete the preliminary design of the conceptual model. The space-time information mechanism of AIDS sexual transmission is not only the theoretical basis of multi-Agent technology modeling, but also the practical basis and significance of the research. Finally, the simulation model based on multi-Agent technology is built. Using Repast simulation platform and Java advanced programming language, and using ArcGIS software to complete the map data processing in the research area, finally realized the integration of AIDS transmission model based on grid space and ArcGIS software. The research results have some practicability, but due to the limited time and level, the paper can not complete the software platform based on GIS, which is one of the key points of the next research.
【学位授予单位】：云南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：R181.3

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