气象因素对南京市居民健康影响的初步研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 17:15

本文选题：气象因素 + 死亡率　；参考：《东南大学》2005年硕士论文

【摘要】： 目的:了解南京市的气候变化趋势,探讨各气象因素对南京市居民死亡率和慢性支气管炎发病的影响,并初步建立南京市的恶劣天气预警预报模式。方法:分析各气象因素逐月变化情况,采用年距平分析1951-2003年南京市气温变化趋势。从时间和人间上分析南京市近10的居民死亡情况。分层分析单个气象因素特别是气温对南京市居民总死亡率、性别、年龄别死亡率和南京市前五大死因死亡率及慢性支气管炎发病的影响。用多元逐步回归分析建立南京市前五大死因日死亡率和慢性支气管炎日发病数与各气象因素间的回归方程,初步探讨建立南京市恶劣天气的预警预报模式,待条件成熟时,以健康危险指数的形式向社会发布。结果:近50年来,20世纪90年代是南京的急剧增暖期,进入21世纪后,气温有持续增高的趋势。南京夏季闷热,气温最高可达40℃,相对湿度80%,甚至可达90%以上,是典型的高温、高湿“火炉”城市;冬季湿冷,最低温度可达-8℃,相对湿度也在70%以上。死亡率冬季高于夏季,男性高于女性(t=5.65,P=0.0001)。在热浪年1994年、1998年和2003年,夏季死亡率明显偏高。单因素分析结果显示,在南京市夏季,当日最高温度达到一定温度时,随着温度的增高,死亡率会显著增加,此临界值在总死亡率为35℃,男女性之间略有差别,分别为35℃和34℃,老年死亡率为33℃,以疾病类型计,呼吸系统、脑血管、心血管、损伤与中毒分别为33℃、35℃、35℃、34℃。冬季死亡率明显增高的最低气温临界值总死亡率为4℃,男女性之间略有差别,分别为4℃和2℃,老年死亡率为4℃,以疾病类型计,呼吸系统、脑血管、损伤与中毒分别为1℃、7℃、6℃。多因素分析结果显示,气温、气湿、气压、风速、日照、降水等对前5位死因死亡率都有影响,而且与前5天的上述因素密切相关。预报方程的预测正确率可达90%。慢性支气管炎四季日发病数均与前1天温差有显著关系,且成反比,秋季和冬季的日发病数还与平均气压成正比,春季和夏季的日发病数与风速也有关系。结论:21世纪南京可能持续增温;日最高温度达35℃以上、日最低温度达4℃以下都会使死亡率明显增加;日死亡率不仅与当日的天气条件有关,与前期几天的天气条件也密切相关。建立恶劣天气健康危险指数有助于降低死亡率,在保障居民健康中发挥一定的作用。稳定的气象条件不利于慢支发病,降温和高气压是慢支发病的诱因之一。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the trend of climate change in Nanjing, to explore the effects of meteorological factors on the mortality of residents and the incidence of chronic bronchitis in Nanjing, and to establish an early warning model for bad weather in Nanjing.
Methods: the monthly change of meteorological factors was analyzed, and the annual temperature variation trend was analyzed in Nanjing city in 1951-2003 years. The death situation of nearly 10 residents in Nanjing was analyzed from time and world. The total mortality, sex, age mortality and the five leading causes of death in Nanjing were analyzed by the single meteorological factors, especially the temperature. The mortality and the influence of chronic bronchitis were analyzed by multiple stepwise regression analysis. The regression equation between the death rate of the five leading causes of death and the daily incidence of chronic bronchitis and the meteorological factors in Nanjing was established, and the early warning model for the establishment of bad weather in Nanjing was preliminarily discussed. Social release.
Results: in the last 50 years, 1990s was a rapid warming period in Nanjing. After entering twenty-first Century, the temperature had a tendency to increase continuously. In summer, the temperature of Nanjing was sultry and the temperature was up to 40, the relative humidity was 80%, or even more than 90%. It was a typical high temperature and high humidity "furnace" city; the winter was wet cold, the minimum temperature could reach -8, and the relative humidity was also 70%. The mortality rate in winter is higher than that in summer, and that in males is higher than that in females (t=5.65, P=0.0001). In summer of 1994, 1998 and 2003, the mortality rate in summer is obviously higher.
The results of single factor analysis showed that in the summer of Nanjing, the mortality rate increased significantly with the increase of temperature at a certain temperature at a certain temperature. The critical value at the total mortality rate was 35 degrees centigrade, and there was a slight difference between men and women at 35 and 34, and the mortality rate was 33 degrees centigrade, the respiratory system, the cerebrovascular, and the cardiovascular system were included in the disease type. The damage and poisoning were 33 C, 35, 35, 34. The total mortality of the lowest temperature of the winter mortality was 4 degrees C, and there was a slight difference between men and women, 4 and 2, and 4 degrees centigrade respectively. The respiratory system, cerebrovascular, injury and poisoning were 1, 7, 6, respectively. The temperature, air humidity, air pressure, wind speed, sunshine and precipitation have an influence on the death rate of the first 5 deaths, and are closely related to the above factors in the first 5 days. The prediction accuracy of the prediction equation can reach 90%. chronic bronchitis with a significant relationship with the temperature difference of the first 1 days, and the daily incidence of the autumn and winter is also associated with the average pressure. The daily incidence of spring and summer is also related to wind speed.
Conclusion: Nanjing may continue to increase the temperature in twenty-first Century. The daily maximum temperature is above 35 degrees C. The daily minimum temperature below 4 C will increase the mortality rate obviously. The daily mortality rate is not only related to the weather conditions of the day, but also closely related to the weather conditions in the early days. Stable weather conditions are not conducive to the onset of chronic bronchitis. Cooling and high air pressure are one of the inducements of chronic bronchitis.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2005
【分类号】：R188

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