西非埃博拉病毒病传入中国的可能航线和风险估计

发布时间：2018-06-18 17:32

本文选题：埃博拉病毒病 + 传染病　；参考：《科学通报》2014年36期

【摘要】：2014年8月8日,世界卫生组织宣布西非埃博拉病毒病疫情为"国际公共卫生紧急事件".为评估西非埃博拉病毒病传入中国的可能航线和风险,本研究基于2013年10~12月的国际民用航空客运数据,分析疫情最严重的3个西非国家(几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂)来华旅客传入疫情的风险.2013年第4季度从西非三国离境旅客为107113人次,其中3167人(3.0%)将主要通过法国、比利时和阿联酋等8个国家的机场转机后,抵达中国大陆.入境机场分布在北京、广州、上海、杭州、武汉、重庆和大连,目的地城市为北京、广州、武汉、上海、杭州、重庆和温州等.假设2014年第4季度与2013年同期出行方式和人数不变,估计相关机场口岸平均每入境和查验国际旅客2235名就有1名来自疫区的旅客;预测2014年10~12月可能传入的埃博拉病毒感染者旅客为0.54人次,其中利比里亚0.35人次、塞拉利昂0.16人次、几内亚0.03人次.若疫区发病水平上升或来华旅客人数减少,则传入的感染者人数呈现相应程度地增加或减少.研究表明,埃博拉病毒病疫情通过民航旅客传入我国的可能性是存在的,但风险较低.我国可支持西非疫区国家开展离境病例筛查,及早发现病例,并有针对性地在我国重点入境口岸开展高风险人群的查验,在主要目的地城市加强监测.
[Abstract]:On August 8, 2014, the World Health Organization declared Ebola in West Africa an international public health emergency. To assess the possible routes and risks of Ebola infection in West Africa into China, this study analyzed the three most affected West African countries (Guinea, Guinea) based on international civil air passenger data from October to December 2013. In the fourth quarter of 2013, there were 107113 passengers departing from three West African countries, of whom 3167 passengers will travel through the airports of France, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates, which will transfer mainly through the airports of eight countries, including France, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates. Arrive in mainland China. Airports are located in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chongqing and Dalian. The destination cities are Beijing, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Wenzhou. Assuming that the mode and number of passengers will remain the same in the fourth quarter of 2014 and the same period in 2013, it is estimated that an average of 1 passenger from the affected area for every 2235 international passengers entering and checking at the relevant airport ports; It is predicted that 0.54 people may be infected with Ebola from October to December 2014, including 0.35 in Liberia, 0.16 in Sierra Leone and 0.03 in Guinea. If the incidence level in the epidemic area rises or the number of visitors to China decreases, the number of infected persons in China increases or decreases to a corresponding extent. The study shows that the Ebola virus epidemic is possible to be introduced into our country through civil aviation passengers, but the risk is relatively low. Our country can support the West African countries to carry out the screening of departure cases, early detection of cases, and targeted at our key ports of entry to carry out high-risk population identification, and strengthen surveillance in the main destination cities.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制处传染病监测预警中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室;Centre
【基金】：国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004-201) 卫生行业科研专项(201202006) 传染病监测预警中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室加拿大卫生研究院项目资助
【分类号】：R181.8

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