冬季气候因素对鄱阳湖区洲滩螺情的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-06 12:25

【摘要】： 在我国南方,日本血吸虫病是一种主要的寄生虫病,严重影响着疫区人民生活,阻碍社会和经济的发展。钉螺是血吸虫的唯一中间宿主,温度是钉螺孳生的重要环境因素,其直接或间接地影响着钉螺的生长、发育、繁殖与分布。冬季温度对钉螺能否生存起决定作用,我国血吸虫病流行地区的1月份平均温度一般都在0℃以上;在北纬33°15′以北钉螺不可能长期存活和延续后代的主要原因是北方冬季持续性低温。适宜钉螺生活与繁殖的温度为20℃-30℃,过冷或过热均不利于其活动、繁殖甚至影响寿命。目前我国钉螺面积的94%以上分布于长江流域的湖沼地区。随着全球气候变暖,我国的气候也在变暖,由于气候变暖,南方也出现了暖冬,气候变暖也造成了极端天气事件的发生,比如2008年1月江西遭遇的雨雪冰冻天气,因此了解冬季气候因素对湖沼区螺情变化的影响具有重要意义。与钉螺孳生相关更为密切的是地表温度(land surface temperature,LST),随着遥感技术的发展,其在提取地表温度方面的应用也越来越多,因而在了解气温对螺情变化的影响以及遥感提取地表温度与气温之间的关系的基础上,可运用遥感技术来预测洲滩钉螺的孳生分布情况。第一部分试点区概况三个试点区分别是鄱阳湖中东岸的鄱阳县三门村的窑背汊洲滩,鄱阳湖南岸的进贤县三里乡滨山村杨家坪洲滩,鄱阳湖北岸的星子县渚溪村的两块相连的洲滩:马家湾和渚溪滩。马家湾和渚溪滩2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率为3.46%、0.99%、2.25%及1.90%;鄱阳窑背汊2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率为1.68%、2.33%、0.92%及0.68%;进贤2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率为1.23%、0.18%、0.69%及0%。发现三个试点区在2007年、2008年未发现阳性螺。活螺密度在2005年、2008年有明显的下降。第二部分鄱阳湖区冬季气候因素对螺情的影响本研究收集三个试点区1998-2008年冬季12月～2月的气象资料(气温和降雨)统计出相关的气象指标:月降雨量,总降雨量(冬季三个月降雨量总和),冬季日最低气温低0℃的天数,整个日冬季最低气温低于5.87℃的天数,1月日平均气温低于0℃的天数,月平均气温,月平均最低气温,月平均最高气温,月最低温度,月最高温度等,并将当年气象指标与来年春季螺情进行相关分析。在星子试点区经相关分析发现活螺密度与冬季日最低温度低于5.87℃的天数和冬季日最低温度低于0℃的天数之间都成负相关。活螺密度与1月平均温度之间为正相关。有螺框出现率与与冬季日最低温度低于5.87℃的天数、冬季目最低温度低于0℃的天数、1月日平均温度低于0℃的天数之间均成负相关,与12月平均温度,1月平均温度成正相关;阳性螺密度和钉螺阳性率在鄱阳湖区纬度比较高的地方-星子与冬季降雨量成正相关。在鄱阳试点区,活螺密度与12月最高温度,1月平均温度之间都成正相关,有螺框出现率与12月最高温度和1月平均温度都成正相关。钉螺阳性率、阳性螺密度与2月最高温度和2月平均温度都成正相关关系。在进贤试点区,活螺密度与2月平均气温存在正相关。说明湖沼地区冬季低温越低,来年春季螺的密度和有螺框出现率越低,2月平均气温越高,钉螺孳生繁殖活动加剧,随着2月温度升高,人畜草洲活动开始频繁,导致阳性螺密度和钉螺阳性率升高。第三部分探索利用MODIS地表温度产品MOD11A2预测螺情的可能性的研究下载NASA网站上免费的MODIS 8天地表温度产品MOD11A2,经过重投影,ENVI中计算,算出1月份平均地表温度,由于星子试点区的螺情与1月平均气温成正相关关系,所以用星子试点区-查螺区域作为感兴趣区域,对MODIS地表温度产品进行裁剪,提取星子试点区的1月平均地表温度。经分析获得的1月平均地表温度与星子试点区活螺密度之间也为正相关关系,且相关系数更高,为0.929,大于1月平均气温与星子试点区活螺密度之间的相关系数0.764。说明在地表温度难以获得的区域可以利用MOD11A2地表温度产品来监测预测钉螺孳生。
[Abstract]:Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease in southern China, which seriously affects people's life and hinders social and economic development. Oncomelania snails are the only intermediate hosts of Schistosoma, and temperature is an important environmental factor for the breeding of oncomelania, which directly or indirectly affects the growth, development, reproduction and distribution of Oncomelania snails. The average temperature in January in the area of schistosomiasis in China is generally above 0 degrees centigrade. The main reason for the non possible long-term survival and continuation of Oncomelania snails in the north latitude of 33 degrees 15 'is the continuous low temperature in the north in winter. The temperature of the life and reproduction of Oncomelania snails is 20 -30 C, which is not good for overcooling or overheating. At present, more than 94% of the area of Oncomelania in China is distributed in the lake and marshes of the Yangtze River Basin. With global warming, the climate in China is also warming. Because of the warming, the South also has warm winter, and the climate warming also caused the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as the Yu Xuebing in Jiangxi in January 2008. Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the influence of winter climate factors on snail changes in lakes and marshlands.
The surface temperature (land surface temperature, LST) is more closely related to the breeding of Oncomelania. With the development of remote sensing technology, more and more applications are used in the extraction of surface temperature. Therefore, remote sensing technology can be applied on the basis of understanding the influence of temperature on the change of snail and the relationship between surface temperature and temperature extraction by remote sensing. To predict the breeding distribution of Oncomelania Oncomelania.
The first part of the pilot area
The three pilot areas are the kilns beaches of the three villages in the Poyang County of the Central East Bank of Poyang Lake, the Yangjiaping beach in Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Yangjiaping, and the beaches of Zhu Xi village in Xingzi County, the North Bank of Poyang Lake: the MMA Bay and Zhu Xi beach. The 200520062007 and 2008 residents of Ma Jia Wan and Zhu Xi Tan are 3.46%, 0 .99%, 2.25% and 1.90%; the infection rate of residents in Poyang kiln back branch in 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.68%, 2.33%, 0.92% and 0.68%. The infection rate of residents in Jinxian 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.23%, 0.18%, 0.69% and 0%. found that there were no positive snail in 2007 and 2008. The density of living snail was obviously decreased in 2005 and 2008.
The second part is the influence of winter climate factors on snail situation in Poyang Lake district.
In this study, the meteorological data (temperature and rainfall) from December to February of three pilot areas were collected. The monthly rainfall, the total rainfall (the total rainfall of three months in winter), the lowest temperature of 0 centigrade in winter, the lowest temperature of the whole day in winter were below 5.87 degrees Celsius, and the average daily temperature in January was lower than 0 centigrade. The number of days, the average monthly temperature, the monthly mean minimum temperature, the maximum monthly temperature, the minimum temperature of the month, the maximum temperature of the month and so on, and the correlation analysis between the meteorological indexes and the spring snails in the coming year were carried out. The number of the living snail density and the winter day's lowest temperature below 5.87 degrees centigrade and the lowest temperature of winter were found to be lower than 0 in the pilot area of the stars. There is a negative correlation between the number of Celsius days and the average temperature of the living snail and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame and the lowest temperature of the winter day are below 5.87 degrees, the lowest temperature in winter is lower than the number of 0 degrees, and the average daily temperature in January is lower than the number of days at 0 degrees C, and it is in positive phase with the average temperature in December and the average January temperature. The density of positive snail and the positive rate of Oncomelania snails were positively related to the winter rainfall in the high latitude of Poyang Lake district. In the pilot area of Poyang, the density of living snail was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. Positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. The density of the snail has a positive correlation with the highest temperature in February and the average temperature in February. In the pilot area of Jinxian, the density of living snail and the average temperature in February have a positive correlation. It shows that the lower the low temperature in winter in the lake area, the lower the density and the emergence of the snails in the spring, the higher the average temperature in February, the increase of the breeding activities of oncomelania, with the temperature rising in February. The activity of human sow Chau began to increase frequently, resulting in higher density of positive snail and positive rate of Oncomelania hupensis.
The third part is to explore the possibility of predicting snail by using MODIS land surface temperature product MOD11A2.
Download the free MODIS 8 world table temperature product MOD11A2 on the NASA site. After re projection and ENVI calculation, the average surface temperature in January is calculated. Because the snails in the pilot area of Xingzi are positively related to the average temperature in January, we cut the surface temperature products of MODIS with the pilot area of the Star son as a sense of interest area, and cut out the surface temperature products of the MODIS. The average surface temperature of January in the pilot area of the star sub region. The average surface temperature obtained in January is also positively correlated with the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed, and the correlation coefficient is higher, 0.929, and the correlation coefficient 0.764. between the average temperature in January and the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed shows that the area where the surface temperature is difficult to obtain can be found. Using MOD11A2 land surface temperature products to monitor snail breeding.
【学位授予单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2009
【分类号】：R184

【参考文献】