1991-2011年池州市贵池区血吸虫病疫情趋势分析
发布时间：2018-08-20 09:53
【摘要】：目的掌握安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病流行规律,为制定防治措施提供参考依据。方法收集1991-2011年贵池区血吸虫病疫情资料,采用描述性统计方法,统计病情、螺情等血吸虫病疫情指标。应用自回归求和移动平均模型(Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)分析该地区血吸虫病发病率的变化趋势。结果不同血吸虫病流行类型地区的实际有螺面积差异有统计学意义(F=256.79,P0.05),人群患病率随钉螺实际有螺面积的增加而升高(P0.05),并且有4个波动高峰(1992、1995、2005、2008年)。时间序列分析显示ARIMA(1,1,1)是拟合最优模型,短期预测2012-2015年贵池区血吸虫病发病率分别为0.017%、0.007%、0.012%和0.010%。结论贵池区血吸虫病疫情得到了有效控制,但湖滩地区仍应加强监测,以防止疫情回升。
[Abstract]:Objective to understand the epidemic law of schistosomiasis in Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and to provide reference for the prevention and control measures. Methods the epidemic data of schistosomiasis in Guichi district from 1991 to 2011 were collected and the epidemic index of schistosomiasis such as disease condition and snail condition were counted by descriptive statistical method. The trend of schistosomiasis incidence in this area was analyzed by autoregressive and moving average model (Autoregressive integrated moving averagea). Results there was significant difference in actual snail area among different schistosomiasis endemic areas (FF256.79). The prevalence rate of population increased with the increase of snail area (P0.05), and there were four peaks of fluctuation (19921995 / 2005, 2008). Time series analysis showed that ARIMA was the best fit model, and the incidence of schistosomiasis in Guichi from 2012 to 2015 was 0.017% and 0.010% respectively. Conclusion the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi district has been effectively controlled, but the surveillance of schistosomiasis in lake and beach area should be strengthened in order to prevent the epidemic from rising again.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与生物统计教研室 复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室 健康风险预警治理协同创新中心 复旦大学公共卫生学院空间分析与建模实验室;安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病防治站;
【基金】：上海市新优青计划(XYQ2013071)
【分类号】：R181.8;R532.21
[Abstract]:Objective to understand the epidemic law of schistosomiasis in Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and to provide reference for the prevention and control measures. Methods the epidemic data of schistosomiasis in Guichi district from 1991 to 2011 were collected and the epidemic index of schistosomiasis such as disease condition and snail condition were counted by descriptive statistical method. The trend of schistosomiasis incidence in this area was analyzed by autoregressive and moving average model (Autoregressive integrated moving averagea). Results there was significant difference in actual snail area among different schistosomiasis endemic areas (FF256.79). The prevalence rate of population increased with the increase of snail area (P0.05), and there were four peaks of fluctuation (19921995 / 2005, 2008). Time series analysis showed that ARIMA was the best fit model, and the incidence of schistosomiasis in Guichi from 2012 to 2015 was 0.017% and 0.010% respectively. Conclusion the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi district has been effectively controlled, but the surveillance of schistosomiasis in lake and beach area should be strengthened in order to prevent the epidemic from rising again.
【作者单位】： 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与生物统计教研室 复旦大学公共卫生学院公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室 健康风险预警治理协同创新中心 复旦大学公共卫生学院空间分析与建模实验室;安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病防治站;
【基金】：上海市新优青计划(XYQ2013071)
【分类号】：R181.8;R532.21
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