Logistic函数模型在预测慢病患病率中的应用

发布时间：2018-10-05 21:01

【摘要】：目的探讨不同Logistic函数模型在预测慢性非传染性疾病(慢病)患病率中的应用。方法利用我国建国以来4次大规模高血压抽样调查的数据,分别以年份、人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)的对数和老龄化率(65岁以上人群所占比例)作为自变量,患病率作为因变量,并参照美国近50年来的高血压流行状况选取模型的上限,建立Logistic函数模型,对高血压未来的发展趋势进行预估。通过计算各模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方误差(MSE)和决定系数(R2)比较其拟合效果。结果取40%为Logistic模型的患病率上界,以年份为自变量时,2010年的患病率估计值为20.35%,患病率将在2060年左右趋于稳定(MAE=0.735,MSE=0.704,R2=0.963);以人均GDP的对数为自变量时,预计2010年的患病率约为23.80%(MAE=0.896,MSE=0.969,R2=0.964);以老龄化率为自变量时,2010年的患病率将达到26.63%(MAE=1.004,MSE=1.659,R2=0.945)。结论 Logistic函数模型在理论上符合人们对未来疾病发展的预估,同时在实际中,可以找到其它国家和地区的疾病流行状况作为现实依托,预测结果较为可靠。其中以GDP和老龄化率作为自变量的模型更注重数据的临床意义。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of different Logistic function models in predicting the prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases. Methods based on the data of four large-scale hypertension sampling surveys since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the logarithm of (gross domestic product,GDP per capita and the aging rate (the proportion of people over 65 years old) were taken as independent variables and the prevalence rate as dependent variables respectively. According to the upper limit of the model of hypertension prevalence in the past 50 years in the United States, the Logistic function model is established to predict the future development trend of hypertension. The average absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE) and the decision coefficient (R2) of the models were calculated to compare their fitting results. Results taking 40% as the upper bound of prevalence of Logistic model, the estimated prevalence rate in 2010 is 20.355.The prevalence rate will be stable (MAE=0.735,MSE=0.704,R2=0.963) in 2060, and the logarithm of GDP per capita will be taken as independent variable. The prevalence rate is estimated to be 23.80% (MAE=0.896,MSE=0.969,R2=0.964) in 2010 and 26.63% (MAE=1.004,MSE=1.659,R2=0.945) in 2010 when the aging rate is the independent variable. Conclusion in theory, the Logistic function model accords with the prediction of the future disease development, and in practice, the epidemic situation of other countries and regions can be found as the realistic basis, and the prediction results are reliable. The model with GDP and aging rate as independent variable pays more attention to the clinical significance of data.
【作者单位】：北京协和医学院中国医学科学院国家心血管病中心阜外心血管病医院心血管疾病国家重点实验室国家心血管病中心;
【分类号】：R181.3

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