山东省肾综合征出血热时空流行动态研究
发布时间：2018-10-24 13:02
【摘要】：肾综合征出血热(Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome，HFRS)是一种自然疫源性疾病。HFRS在世界上分布广泛，危害较大。我国是HFRS流行最为严重的国家，占世界发病人数的90％以上；HFRS是严重危害我国居民健康的重要传染病之一，在《全国疾病预防控制工作第十个五年计划纲要》(卫生部卫办疾控发[2002]31号)中被列为重点防治的传染病。研究表明，在中国流行的HFRS病毒株主要为汉坦病毒(Hantan virus，HV)，至少存在汉滩(Hantaan，HTN)型和汉城(Seoul，SEO)型。目前，虽已基本弄清了我国HFRS疫源地类型及其时空分布特征，但尚未阐明HFRS发病水平和疫源地类型连续变化的时空动态特征。因而，以往的疫苗免疫和灭鼠等预防措施未能依据其时空动态变化特征进行适时调整，致使HFRS的流行仍十分严重，老疫区范围不断扩大，新疫区时有发生，呈现出疫情难以控制的严重局面。因此，研究HFRS的时空流行动态特征不仅对阐明HFRS的流行病学规律具有重要的理论意义，，而且对制定切实可行的因时、因地制宜的HFRS预防控制措施具有重要的现实意义。 鉴于山东省是我国HFRS流行最严重的疫区，其发病人数始终占全国发病总数的1/3左右；流行的HFRS病毒株也主要为HTN型和SEO型；在海拔高度和地理纬度上恰恰位于第三阶梯内低纬度稳定的Ⅲ型疫区和高纬度Ⅰ型疫区之间的过渡区；经历了由单纯型疫源地到混合型疫源地的演化过程，且疫区结构仍处在动态变化之中。因而，山东省是研究HFRS时空流行动态特征的最典型、最具代表性的HFRS疫区之一。为此，本研究利用山东省1974年～2004年以县(市、区)为单位的历年HFRS发病水平(年均发病率和逐月发病率)、HFRS既往病例血清学检测、宿主动物监测(鼠密度、鼠种构成及其带毒率)等资料，将地理流行病学、血清流行病学、地质统计学和混沌分形理论等学科的分析方法相结合，定量分析山东省HFRS发病水平和疫源地类型连续变化的时空动态特征。以期阐明山东省HFRS疫源地时空动态演化规律，为制定切实可行的HFRS预防控制措施提供理论
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome,HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease. HFRS is widely distributed and harmful in the world. China is the country with the most serious HFRS epidemic, accounting for more than 90% of the world, HFRS is one of the most important infectious diseases that seriously endanger the health of the residents in our country. In the outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan of National Disease Prevention and Control (Health Office of the Ministry of Health [2002] 31), it was listed as the key infectious disease prevention and control. The results showed that the most prevalent HFRS strains in China were Hantavirus (Hantan virus,HV), at least Hantaan,HTN and Seoul,SEO. At present, although the types of HFRS foci and their temporal and spatial distribution in China have been basically clarified, the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the continuous changes of HFRS incidence level and foci types have not been clarified. As a result, previous preventive measures such as vaccine immunization and rodent control failed to adjust timely according to their temporal and spatial dynamic changes, resulting in a very serious epidemic of HFRS. The scope of the old epidemic area continued to expand, and new epidemic areas occurred from time to time. There is a serious situation in which the epidemic is difficult to control. Therefore, the study of spatiotemporal epidemic dynamics of HFRS is not only of great theoretical significance to clarify the epidemiological law of HFRS, but also of practical significance to make measures to prevent and control HFRS according to local conditions. In view of the fact that Shandong Province is the most serious epidemic area of HFRS in our country, the number of people suffering from the disease always accounts for about one third of the total incidence in China, and the prevalent HFRS virus strains are mainly HTN type and SEO type. In the altitude and geographical latitude, the transition area between the type 鈪
本文编号：2291492
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome,HFRS) is a natural epidemic disease. HFRS is widely distributed and harmful in the world. China is the country with the most serious HFRS epidemic, accounting for more than 90% of the world, HFRS is one of the most important infectious diseases that seriously endanger the health of the residents in our country. In the outline of the Tenth Five-Year Plan of National Disease Prevention and Control (Health Office of the Ministry of Health [2002] 31), it was listed as the key infectious disease prevention and control. The results showed that the most prevalent HFRS strains in China were Hantavirus (Hantan virus,HV), at least Hantaan,HTN and Seoul,SEO. At present, although the types of HFRS foci and their temporal and spatial distribution in China have been basically clarified, the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of the continuous changes of HFRS incidence level and foci types have not been clarified. As a result, previous preventive measures such as vaccine immunization and rodent control failed to adjust timely according to their temporal and spatial dynamic changes, resulting in a very serious epidemic of HFRS. The scope of the old epidemic area continued to expand, and new epidemic areas occurred from time to time. There is a serious situation in which the epidemic is difficult to control. Therefore, the study of spatiotemporal epidemic dynamics of HFRS is not only of great theoretical significance to clarify the epidemiological law of HFRS, but also of practical significance to make measures to prevent and control HFRS according to local conditions. In view of the fact that Shandong Province is the most serious epidemic area of HFRS in our country, the number of people suffering from the disease always accounts for about one third of the total incidence in China, and the prevalent HFRS virus strains are mainly HTN type and SEO type. In the altitude and geographical latitude, the transition area between the type 鈪
本文编号：2291492
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