甘肃省2008—2013年传染病自动预警系统时间模型运行结果分析

发布时间：2018-10-30 14:55

【摘要】：目的分析甘肃省2008—2013年传染病自动预警系统时间模型的运行结果,评价该预警系统的灵敏性和实用性,为进一步优化预警阈值提供参考依据。方法收集甘肃省2008年1月—2013年12月传染病预警数据,分析传染病预警系统时间模型产生的预警信号数量及响应结果,并比较不同病种和地区预警阈值调整前后的预警结果。结果甘肃省2008—2013年传染病自动预警系统共发出预警信号39 940条,报告病例数与预警信号数比值为9.01:1,疑似事件信号数占预警信号数的1.57%,预警信号阳性率为0.64%;发出预警信号最多的病种为痢疾、其他感染性腹泻、流行性腮腺炎,占所有预警信号的63.17%;在预警阈值调整后,预警系统灵敏度由70.59%下降至39.62%,预警信号阳性率由0.88%下降至0.34%,流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、手足口病、其他感染性腹泻、痢疾、甲肝、急性出血性结膜炎预警阳性率下降;预警信号共覆盖甘肃省14个市州86个县区,响应时间中位数为0.84 h;在预警阈值调整后,仅兰州市、嘉峪关市预警信号阳性率上升,所有市州信号响应时间中位数均较调整前缩短。结论甘肃省2008—2013年传染病自动预警系统运行稳定,预警系统阈值调整后预警效果欠佳,今后将根据不同病种和地区的具体情况优化阈值,减少假阳性预警,进一步提高预警系统的灵敏度和特异度。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the operating results of the time model of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013, to evaluate the sensitivity and practicability of the early warning system, and to provide a reference basis for further optimization of the early warning threshold. Methods the early warning data of infectious diseases in Gansu Province from January 2008 to December 2013 were collected, and the number and response results of early warning signals generated by time model of early warning system of infectious diseases were analyzed, and the early warning results before and after the adjustment of early warning threshold for different diseases and regions were compared. Results A total of 39,940 early warning signals were issued by the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013. The ratio of reported cases to early warning signals was 9.01: 1, and the number of suspected incidents accounted for 1.57 of the early warning signals. The positive rate of warning signal was 0.64; The most common early warning signs were dysentery, other infectious diarrhea, and mumps, accounting for 63.17g of all warning signs; The sensitivity of early warning system decreased from 70.59% to 39.62%, the positive rate of warning signal decreased from 0.88% to 0.34%, influenza, mumps, rubella, hand, foot and mouth disease, Other infectious diarrhea, dysentery, hepatitis A, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis early warning positive rate decreased; The early warning signal covers 86 counties of 14 cities and states in Gansu Province, and the median response time is 0.84 h. After adjusting the warning threshold, the positive rate of early warning signal in Lanzhou City and Jiayuguan City increased, and the median response time of signal in all cities was shorter than that before adjustment. Conclusion the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013 is stable, and the effect of early warning after adjusting the threshold value of early warning system is poor. In the future, the threshold will be optimized according to the specific conditions of different diseases and regions to reduce false positive early warning. Further improve the sensitivity and specificity of the early warning system.
【作者单位】：甘肃省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：甘肃省卫生行业科研管理项目(GWGL2014-83)
【分类号】：R181.8

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