我国手足口病重症患者数自回归移动平均模型预测研究

发布时间：2018-11-15 18:51

【摘要】：采用自回归移动平均(Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型对我国(不含中国港澳台)手足口病月报告的重症患者数进行预测研究,为该模型在手足口病及其它传染病预防控制中的应用提供参考依据。根据2010-2015年全国手足口病月报告重症患者数时间序列,以2016年1-9月的月报告重症患者数作为验证数据,建立我国手足口病月报告重症患者数的ARIMA模型,并与2010-2014年数据建立的模型进行比较。2010-2014、2010-2015年两个不同时间序列建立的我国手足口病月报告重症患者数模型分别为ARIMA(1,1,0)(2,1,0)12、ARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,0)12。以上两个不同时间序列预测结果比较发现,数据积累较多,预测的平均相对误差变小,但预测时间越短尚未发现平均相对误差较小。同一研究内容,时间序列年代不同,所建立的预测模型可能不同;认为ARIMA模型数据积累越多、预测时间越短、预测误差越小的情况还需得到进一步验证。
[Abstract]:An autoregressive moving average (Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA) model was used to predict the number of severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease reported monthly in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and China). It provides a reference for the application of the model in the prevention and control of hand, foot and mouth disease and other infectious diseases. According to the time series of severe cases reported by hand, foot and mouth disease monthly in China from 2010 to 2015, and taking the monthly number of severe cases reported from January to September 2016 as the verification data, a ARIMA model was established for reporting severe cases in hand, foot and mouth disease month in China. Compared with the model established in 2010-2014, the models of the number of severe cases reported by hand, foot and mouth disease in China from 2010-2014 to 2010-2015 in two different time series were ARIMA (1 / 1 / 0) (2 / 1 / 0) and 12C Arima (0 / 1 / 1) (2 / 1), respectively. 0) 12. It is found that the data accumulation is more and the average relative error of prediction becomes smaller, but the shorter the prediction time is, the smaller the average relative error has not been found. In the same study, different time series years may lead to different prediction models, and it is considered that the more data accumulated in ARIMA model, the shorter the prediction time is, and the smaller the prediction error is, the further verification is needed.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所;中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所;
【分类号】：R512.5;R181

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