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广西南宁市江南区4起水痘暴发疫情的Reed-Frost模型拟合优度的研究

发布时间:2018-11-22 11:01
【摘要】:目的通过用真实案例进行拟合,评价Reed-Frost模型在水痘暴发中的应用效果。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统,下载2014-2016年南宁市江南区4起水痘暴发疫情的流行病学调查报告和结案报告,利用其原始发病数据,建立Reed-Frost数学模型并进行拟合,评价其拟合效果。结果此次水痘流行各代病例出现的间隔为3~7 d,与水痘潜伏期一致。结果发现,当在A、B、C、D 4所小学的有效接触率分别为0.0021、0.0039、0.0022和0.0026时,χ~2值最小,此时模型算得各代病例数与实际值最接近,差异无统计学意义。结论 Reed-Frost模型对自然状态下水痘暴发疫情拟合效果较理想,表明该模型比较适用于水痘暴发的理论流行病学研究。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the application of Reed-Frost model in varicella outbreak by using real cases. Methods from China Disease Prevention and Control Information system, the epidemiological investigation report and closing report of 4 chickenpox outbreaks in Jiangnan District of Nanning City from 2014-2016 were downloaded. The Reed-Frost mathematical model was established and fitted by using the original incidence data. The fitting effect was evaluated. Results the interval of each generation of chickenpox epidemic cases was 3 ~ 7 days, which was consistent with the incubation period of chickenpox. The results showed that the 蠂 ~ 2 value was the smallest when the effective contact rates were 0.0021 ~ 1 / 0.0039 / 0.0022 and 0.0026 respectively in Agna BU C ~ 4 primary school, and the results showed that the number of cases in each generation was the closest to the actual value, and the difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion the Reed-Frost model is suitable for the theoretical epidemiological study of chickenpox outbreaks in natural condition, which indicates that the model is more suitable for the theoretical epidemiological study of chickenpox outbreaks.
【作者单位】: 广西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室;广西南宁市江南区疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】:广西医科大学校级资助项目(2017JGA001)
【分类号】:R181.3;R511.5

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