广东省传染病时空模型预警效能评价
发布时间：2018-12-21 10:49
【摘要】：目的对广东省时空模型试点县区在预警阈值调整前后的时空模型和时间模型的预警效能进行评价,了解时空模型的预警效能是否更优。方法对2008年4月21日-2012年12月31日广东省时空模型试点县区的时空模型和时间模型的灵敏度、特异度、及时性和热点定位进行评价。结果预警阈值调整前,时空模型与时间模型的灵敏度分别为67.74%和35.48%(χ2=12.917,P0.01),特异度分别为20.25%和8.23%(χ2=28.063,P0.01),及时性M分别为-0.49 d和1.65 d;预警阈值调整后,时空模型与时间模型的灵敏度分别为78.43%和43.14%(χ2=13.326,P0.01),特异度分别为31.82%和13.35%(χ2=34.325,P0.01),及时性M分别为-0.27 d和0.67 d;预警阈值调整前后,时间模型均无法从空间上识别热点区域,而时空模型则可以发现空间聚集性异常。结论无论是预警阈值调整前还是后,时空模型的灵敏度、特异度、及时性和热点定位均优于时间模型;预警阈值调整后的时空模型的灵敏度、特异度、及时性和热点定位均优于调整前。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the early warning effectiveness of spatio-temporal model and time model before and after threshold adjustment in Guangdong Province, and to find out whether the spatio-temporal model is more effective. Methods from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatiotemporal model and time model in pilot counties of Guangdong Province were evaluated. Results before the adjustment of early warning threshold, the sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 67.74% and 35.48%, respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (12.917) P _ (0.01), and the specificity were 20.25% and 8.23% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (2) ~ (28.063) P _ (0.01), respectively. The timeliness M was -0.49 d and 1.65 d respectively; The sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 78.43% and 43.14% respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (13) 326 ~ (26) P _ (0.01), the specificity were 31.82% and 13.35% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (34) ~ (325) P _ (0.01), respectively. Timeliness M was -0.27 d and 0.67 d respectively; Before and after the pre-warning threshold is adjusted, the time model can not identify the hot spot from the space, but the space-time model can find the anomaly of spatial aggregation. Conclusion the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatio-temporal model are better than that of the time model, both before and after the threshold adjustment. The sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot orientation of the model are better than those before adjustment.
【作者单位】： 广东省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生应急部;
【基金】：广东省“十二五”医学重点学科(公共卫生应急管理) 广东省医学科研基金项目(C2013003)
【分类号】：R181.82
，
本文编号：2388806
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the early warning effectiveness of spatio-temporal model and time model before and after threshold adjustment in Guangdong Province, and to find out whether the spatio-temporal model is more effective. Methods from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatiotemporal model and time model in pilot counties of Guangdong Province were evaluated. Results before the adjustment of early warning threshold, the sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 67.74% and 35.48%, respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (12.917) P _ (0.01), and the specificity were 20.25% and 8.23% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (2) ~ (28.063) P _ (0.01), respectively. The timeliness M was -0.49 d and 1.65 d respectively; The sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 78.43% and 43.14% respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (13) 326 ~ (26) P _ (0.01), the specificity were 31.82% and 13.35% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (34) ~ (325) P _ (0.01), respectively. Timeliness M was -0.27 d and 0.67 d respectively; Before and after the pre-warning threshold is adjusted, the time model can not identify the hot spot from the space, but the space-time model can find the anomaly of spatial aggregation. Conclusion the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatio-temporal model are better than that of the time model, both before and after the threshold adjustment. The sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot orientation of the model are better than those before adjustment.
【作者单位】： 广东省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生应急部;
【基金】：广东省“十二五”医学重点学科(公共卫生应急管理) 广东省医学科研基金项目(C2013003)
【分类号】：R181.82
，
本文编号：2388806
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