昆明主城区气传致敏花粉日历及预测模型建立

发布时间：2018-04-30 18:47

本文选题：气传致敏花粉 + 气象条件　；参考：《昆明医科大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的：调查和分析昆明主城区气传花粉的种类、数量和分布规律,确定主要气传致敏花粉种属。建立昆明主要气传致敏花粉日历和花粉与气象关系预测模型,预测致敏花粉种类、起止日期及高峰期,为花粉症的病因预防和免疫治疗提供依据。方法：采用重力沉降法曝片调查昆明主城区2009.12.1～2010.11.30和2014.04.22～2014.8.17气传花粉并在光学显微镜下进行花粉鉴定计数,统计各时间段花粉的种类、数量及分布规律,同时收集同期变应原皮内试验(allergen intradermal tests, AIT)阳性的变应性鼻炎(allergic rhinitis AR)患者人数及气象资料；查阅资料获得1986.12.1～1987.11.30的气传花粉飘散数据,以此作为新旧对比；以2009.12.1～2010.11.30气传花粉飘散数据为主进行分析,2014.04.22～2014.8.17作为检验,采用相关分析方法分析气传花粉数、AIT阳性的AR人数与气象要素的关系,根据各种花粉的季节分布规律及生物学特征,建立昆明主城区主要气传致敏花粉日历。结合生物、气象、数理统计等分析方法建立昆明主城区主要气传致敏花粉、AIT阳性的AR人数的气象预测模型。结果：2009～2010年曝片共60个花粉种属26147个花粉粒；全年气传花粉呈现2次高峰,分别为2-4月和9-10月；与20年前相比,花粉种类新增26个种属,减少12个种属,飘散高峰期20年前后一致,都为春、秋两季。经统计分析昆明气传花粉数、AIT阳性的AR人数与气象关系密切；昆明主城区主要气传致敏花粉有19个种属；按各种属花粉所占比例多少排序确定昆明主城区主要气传致敏花粉松、旱冬瓜、豆科、柏科、大麻薇草、胡桃、藜、蒿、杨属、蔷薇、禾本科、桑12个种属作为预报花粉。结论：确定了昆明主城区的气传花粉分布规律；得出了气传花粉数、AIT阳性的AR人数与气象条件关系密切；建立了12种主要气传致敏花粉的花粉日历；初步建立了气象条件与气传花粉粒数、AIT阳性的AR人数的预测模型；为气传致敏花粉预报找到了一定的方法,为花粉症的病因预防和免疫治疗提供了依据。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate and analyze the species, quantity and distribution of airborne pollen in Kunming. In order to provide evidence for etiological prevention and immunotherapy of pollinosis, a forecast model of the relationship between pollen and pollen was established in Kunming, and the types, dates and peak periods of pollen allergies were predicted. Methods: the airborne pollen was investigated by gravity sedimentation method in the main urban area of Kunming on November 30, 2010, and April 22, 2014, and counted under optical microscope. The species, quantity and distribution of pollen in each period of time were counted. At the same time, the number and meteorological data of allergic rhinitis ARA with allergen intradermal tests, AIT) positive in the same period of allergen test were collected, and the airborne pollen dispersion data of 1986.12.1and 1987.11.30 were obtained as a comparison between the old and the new. Based on the data of airborne pollen floatation on November 30, 2009.12 / 1 / 2010, the correlation analysis method was used to analyze the relationship between the number of AIT positive AR numbers and meteorological factors, and according to the seasonal distribution and biological characteristics of all kinds of pollen, the correlation analysis method was used to analyze the relationship between the number of AIT positive AR numbers and meteorological elements, according to the seasonal distribution and biological characteristics of all kinds of pollen. To establish the main air-sensitized pollen calendar in the main urban area of Kunming. Combined with biological, meteorological, mathematical statistics and other analytical methods, a meteorological prediction model for the number of AIT positive AR in the main urban area of Kunming was established. Results from 2009 to 2010, there were 26147 pollen grains in 60 pollen species, and there were two peaks of airborne pollen in the whole year, which were from February to April and from September to October. Compared with 20 years ago, the pollen species increased by 26 species and decreased by 12 species and genera. Floating peak period of 20 years consistent, are spring, autumn two seasons. The number of AIT positive AR in the number of airborne pollen in Kunming is closely related to meteorology, there are 19 species and genera of the main airborne pollen in the main urban area of Kunming, and according to the proportion of the pollen of various genera, it is determined that the main air-induced pollen pine in the main urban area of Kunming. Winter melon, legume, cypress, hemp, walnut, quinoa, artemisia, poplar, rose, Gramineae, mulberry 12 species as forecast pollen. Conclusion: the distribution rule of airborne pollen in the main urban area of Kunming was determined, and the relationship between the number of AIT positive AR and meteorological conditions was obtained, and the pollen calendar of 12 kinds of main airborne pollen sensitized pollen was established. The prediction model of meteorological conditions and AIT positive AR number of airborne pollen grains was established preliminarily, and a certain method was found for the prediction of airborne sensitized pollen, which provided a basis for the etiological prevention and immunotherapy of pollinosis.
【学位授予单位】：昆明医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：R593.1

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