健康管理人群高脂血症风险预测模型
发布时间：2018-08-17 15:51
【摘要】：目的建立20岁以上健康管理人群高脂血症风险预测模型并对其预测效果进行评价。方法依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察队列共纳入30 056人,采用Cox比例风险回归建立高脂血症预测模型,利用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)进行模型评价,十折交叉验证法检验模型的预测效果和判别能力。结果随访期间共新发高脂血症5 063例,发病密度为47.78‰。预测模型纳入的变量为年龄、性别、吸烟、饮酒、总胆固醇、甘油三酯、总胆红素、高密度脂蛋白、糖尿病和高血压10个变量。预测模型的ROC曲线下面积AUC为0.741(95%CI:0.731~0.752),经十折交叉验证平均AUC为0.741。结论构建的高脂血症风险预测模型在健康管理人群中具有较好预测能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a risk prediction model for hyperlipidemia in health management population over 20 years old and evaluate its effect. Methods A total of 30 056 people were enrolled in the longitudinal observation cohort based on multi-center health management in Shandong Province. The prediction model of hyperlipidemia was established by Cox proportional risk regression, and the model was evaluated by area (AUC) under the ROC curve. The prediction effect and discriminant ability of the model were tested by ten fold cross validation method. Results during the follow-up period, there were 5 063 cases of new hyperlipidemia, the incidence density was 47.78 鈥，
本文编号：2188141
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a risk prediction model for hyperlipidemia in health management population over 20 years old and evaluate its effect. Methods A total of 30 056 people were enrolled in the longitudinal observation cohort based on multi-center health management in Shandong Province. The prediction model of hyperlipidemia was established by Cox proportional risk regression, and the model was evaluated by area (AUC) under the ROC curve. The prediction effect and discriminant ability of the model were tested by ten fold cross validation method. Results during the follow-up period, there were 5 063 cases of new hyperlipidemia, the incidence density was 47.78 鈥，
本文编号：2188141
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