2007-2014年江苏省昆山市2型糖尿病发病率趋势分析

发布时间：2019-05-07 21:11

【摘要】：目的了解江苏省昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病发病率年代变化趋势。方法 2型糖尿病发病病例来源于针对全市户籍人口的慢性病监测工作,计算粗发病率和年龄标化率。采用年份变化百分比(Annual Percentage Change,APC)来评价糖尿病发病率时间趋势;使用灰色模型预测2型糖尿病未来的发展趋势。结果中标率在总人群(APC=10.73%,95%CI:7.3%~14.16%,P=0.0011)、男性(APC=11.31%,95%CI:7.47%~15.15%,P=0.0016)及女性(APC=10.11%,95%CI:6.98%~13.24%,P=0.0009)中明显上升。根据灰色模型GM(1,1),预测结果显示2015-2018年2型糖尿病的发病率将继续升高。结论昆山市2007-2014年2型糖尿病发病率呈上升趋势。一方面要改变生活方式减少糖尿病发生,另一方面要加强糖尿病社区综合防治,减少糖尿病疾病负担。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the chronological trend of the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2014. Methods the incidence of type 2 diabetes came from the chronic disease surveillance of the registered population in the whole city, and the crude incidence and age-standardized rate were calculated. The temporal trend of diabetes incidence was evaluated by the percentage of year variation (Annual Percentage Change,APC), and the future development trend of type 2 diabetes was predicted by grey model. Results the standardized rate was in the total population (APC=10.73%,95%CI:7.3%~14.16%,P=0.0011), male (APC=11.31%,95%CI:7.47%~15.15%,P=0.0016) and female (APC=10.11%,). 95% CI / CI 6.98% / 13.24%, P / 0.0009 (P = 0.0009). According to grey model GM (1,1), the predicted incidence of type 2 diabetes will continue to increase between 2015 and 2018. Conclusion the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Kunshan City increased from 2007 to 2014. On the one hand, we should change the way of life to reduce the occurrence of diabetes, on the other hand, we should strengthen the comprehensive prevention and cure of diabetes and reduce the burden of
【作者单位】： 苏州大学公共卫生学院;昆山市疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R587.1
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本文编号：2471388