Nursing Care Workload Nursing Administration Research

  本文关键词：神经内科护理工作量的时间序列研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

神经内科护理工作量的时间序列研究

Time series analysis of nursing workload in neurological wards

[1] [2]

CHEN Hong,JIANG Hong

复旦大学附属华山医院护理部,上海市200040

文章摘要：目的 了解神经内科护理工作量的变化趋势,构建每日护理工作量时间序列模型,预测护理工作量。方法 工作量衡量采用赋分法,由信息系统自动生成后提取每日护理工作量。采用时间序列分析构建每日护理工作量的时间序列模型。结果 2013年4个季度总护理工作量变化如下：A病区呈先上升后下降的趋势,B病区呈下降、上升,然后下降的趋势。最佳拟合模型均为指数平滑模型,对2014年1月1-3日A、B两个病区总护理工作量进行预测,A病区3d总护理工作量分别为：317.39分、316.14分、295.94分;B病区分别为：450.03分、449.38分、445.58分。结论 神经内科护理工作量在脑血管疾病等高发的冬春季节较夏秋季节低,不同部门各季度护理工作量不同。应用时间序列分析可预测护理工作量,根据短期预测值调整当日上班护士人数,同时可评价现有人力配置策略的合理性。

Abstr：Objective To dissect the trends of nursing workload and construct time series model of daily nursing workload using time series analysis,and forcast the nursing workload in neurological wards. Methods The daily nursing workload was evaluated by Score Method. Time series analysis was used to construct the time series model of daily nursing workload. Results The trends of ward A＇s nursing workload increased firstly and decreased then.The trends of ward B＇s nursing workload decreased firstly,increased then and decreased ultimately. The fit time series model for ward A and ward B were Exponential Smoothing Model,the forecasted nursing workload of ward A were317.39、316.14、295.94 for the next three days,while the ward B were 450.03、449.38、445.58. Conclusions Neurological nursing workload in the winter and spring of high cerebro-vascular disease incidence were lower than the summer and fall. Time series analysis can predict the nursing workload through the short-term forecasting of time series model. It can also evaluate the reasonableness of the existing staffing strategy.

文章关键词：

Keyword：:Nursing Care Workload Nursing Administration Research

课题项目：国家临床重点专科建设项目;复旦大学护理学院科研项目（FNF201236）

  本文关键词：神经内科护理工作量的时间序列研究，，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。