90天复发风险评估量表和艾森脑卒中风险分层量表对急性缺血性脑卒中复发风险预测价值

发布时间：2018-01-02 19:27

本文关键词：90天复发风险评估量表和艾森脑卒中风险分层量表对急性缺血性脑卒中复发风险预测价值　出处：《中华老年心脑血管病杂志》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探讨90d复发风险评估量表(RRE-90)和艾森脑卒中风险分层量表(ESRS)对急性缺血性脑卒中(AIS)1年复发风险的预测价值。方法建立前瞻性队列研究,连续纳入2012年12月1日~2014年6月8日在我院神经内科住院治疗的AIS患者483例,收集患者临床基线资料,进行ESRS及RRE-90评分,对患者或家属进行电话随访1年,将患者分为复发组56例和未复发组427例。以复发作为金标准,收集患者的临床终点事件等指标。绘制ESRS和RRE-90评分的ROC曲线,应用Hosmer-Lemeshow法判断模型的拟合优度。结果随访1年时,脑卒中复发率11.59%,死亡45例,死亡率9.32%。RRE-90、ESRS评分预测AIS患者1年复发的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.588(95%CI:0.542~0.632)、0.587(95%CI:0.542~0.632)。2个量表预测AIS复发差异无统计学意义(P0.05);应用Hosmer-Lemeshow法χ2检验分别为5.855、3.271(P0.05)。结论 RRE-90与ESRS对AIS患者1年复发具有相同的预测效能。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the effects of 90 d recurrence risk assessment scale (RRE-90) and Issen stroke risk stratification scale (ESRS) on acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods A prospective cohort study was established. From December 1st 2012 to June 8th 2014, 483 patients with AIS were admitted to the department of neurology in our hospital. The clinical baseline data were collected. The patients were divided into recurrent group (56 cases) and non-recurrence group (427 cases). Recurrence was regarded as the gold standard. The clinical endpoint events were collected and the ROC curves of ESRS and RRE-90 scores were drawn. Results after one year of follow-up, the recurrence rate of stroke was 11.59 and 45 cases died. The area under the ROC curve of 9. 32% RRE-90% ESRS to predict the recurrence of AIS in one year was 0.588% 95% CI: 0. 542 卤0. 632). The difference between the two scales in predicting the recurrence of AIS was not statistically significant (P 0.05). The 蠂 2 test by Hosmer-Lemeshow method was 5.855 respectively. Conclusion RRE-90 and ESRS have the same predictive efficacy for 1 year recurrence of AIS patients.
【作者单位】：北京大学航天临床医学院航天中心医院神经内科;
【基金】：首都卫生发展科技专项项目(首发2011-6031-04)
【分类号】：R743.3
【正文快照】： 急性缺血性脑卒中(AIS)占全部脑卒中的80%。若能够早期预测AIS复发的风险,并进行早期干预,将有效减少AIS的复发、致残及致死事件。预测脑卒中复发是临床的难点之一,仅依赖临床医师的诊疗经验往往难以进行准确评价[1]。国外一些学者开始研发诸如ABCD3、艾森脑卒中风险分层量表(

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