健康管理人群脑卒中风险预测模型

发布时间：2018-10-19 06:35

【摘要】：目的构建20岁以上健康管理人群脑卒中发病风险预测模型。方法依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察大数据库,构建20岁以上人群的脑卒中发生队列。采用Fine-Gray竞争风险模型分性别分别构建脑卒中风险预测模型。结果观察期间共新发生脑卒中患者1 299例,其中男829例,女470例,发病密度为4.51‰。男性预测模型纳入变量为年龄、高血压、冠心病史、糖尿病、吸烟、体质量指数、甘油三酯、白细胞计数、血小板计数、高密度脂蛋白、总胆固醇;女性预测模型纳入变量为年龄、高血压、冠心病史、红细胞计数、血红蛋白、体质量指数。男性与女性预测模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.846(95%CI:0.828~0.864)、0.878(95%CI:0.858~0.898)。结论成功构建的脑卒中风险预测模型在健康管理人群中具有很好的预测能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a predictive model of stroke risk in health management population over 20 years old. Methods based on the large longitudinal observation database of health management in Shandong Province, a cohort of stroke occurred was constructed in the population over 20 years old. The Fine-Gray competitive risk model was used to construct the stroke risk prediction model. Results during the observation period, 1 299 new stroke cases were observed, including 829 males and 470 females, the incidence of which was 4.51 鈥，

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