健康管理队列白内障发病风险预测模型
发布时间：2018-10-26 16:28
【摘要】：目的构建50岁以上健康管理队列的白内障发病风险预测模型。方法依托山东多中心健康管理纵向观察数据库,采用Cox比例风险回归构建白内障发病风险预测模型,通过ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型的预测效果,并利用十折交叉验证来检验模型的稳定性。结果随访期间共新发白内障病例1 010例,发病密度为24.76‰。预测模型最终纳入年龄、性别、吸烟、高黏稠血症、鼓膜疾患、屈光不正、糖尿病、总胆固醇和收缩压9个变量。白内障发病风险预测模型的AUC为0.712(95%CI:0.693~0.732)。十折交叉验证的平均AUC为0.714。结论研究构建的白内障发病风险预测模型有较好的预测效果,为白内障高危人群的早期筛查提供了依据。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a predictive model of cataract risk in health management cohort over 50 years old. Methods based on the longitudinal observation database of multi-center health management in Shandong province, the prediction model of cataract risk was constructed by Cox proportional risk regression. The area (AUC) model under the ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. The stability of the model is tested by 10% cross-validation. Results during the follow-up period, 1 010 new cataract cases, the incidence density was 24.76 鈥，
本文编号：2296316
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a predictive model of cataract risk in health management cohort over 50 years old. Methods based on the longitudinal observation database of multi-center health management in Shandong province, the prediction model of cataract risk was constructed by Cox proportional risk regression. The area (AUC) model under the ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. The stability of the model is tested by 10% cross-validation. Results during the follow-up period, 1 010 new cataract cases, the incidence density was 24.76 鈥，
本文编号：2296316
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/yixuelunwen/wuguanyixuelunwen/2296316.html
最近更新
教材专著
