低温对中国居民健康影响的空间差异性分析

发布时间：2018-01-16 11:55

本文关键词：低温对中国居民健康影响的空间差异性分析　出处：《地球信息科学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：全球变暖导致气象灾害频发,尤其是极端天气事件。极端温度对公共健康的影响已成为当今研究的热点问题之一。相比于发达国家,中国在该领域研究起步较晚。虽然已有出色的成果,但在以下3个方面还略显不足:(1)大多数研究基于一个城市或几个城市,缺乏基于大量数据的区域尺度的研究;(2)已有研究往往按地理因素或行政单位来划分区域,而忽视区域内部温度的异质性;(3)相比高温热浪,鲜少有研究关注低温冷害的影响。针对上述问题,本文收集了中国疾病预防控制中心2007-2012年全国127个站点的数据,利用分布式滞后非线性模型,探究了中国5个温度带温度与居民非意外死亡之间的暴露-反应曲线。在此基础上,定义当地温度分布1%处的温度为极端低温,根据温度-死亡风险曲线,计算了冷害造成的死亡风险。结果表明,不同温度带的温度-死亡关系曲线呈现U型或J型。极端低温对北亚热带影响最小,其相对风险为1.27(95%CI:0.94-1.72);对中亚热带影响最大,其相对风险为1.93(95%CI:1.08-3.60)。随着温度带温度的升高,低温冷效应的影响呈现"M"型,这一特征与不同温度带经济发展有关。因此,不同地区的政府除了应着力提高地区经济发展外,还应根据地区特征,采取更积极有效的措施来应对低温冷害可能给当地公共健康造成的威胁。
[Abstract]:Global warming has led to frequent meteorological disasters, especially extreme weather events. The impact of extreme temperature on public health has become one of the hot issues. Compared with developed countries. Although there have been outstanding achievements in the following three aspects, most of the research is based on one city or several cities. Lack of research on a regional scale based on large amounts of data; 2) the existing studies often divide the region according to geographical factors or administrative units, but ignore the heterogeneity of temperature in the region; Compared with the high temperature heat wave, few studies have focused on the effects of low temperature and chilling damage. In view of the above problems, the data of 127 stations of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2007 to 2012 were collected in this paper. Based on the distributed hysteresis nonlinear model, the exposure response curves between the temperature of five temperature zones in China and non-accidental death of residents were investigated. On this basis, the temperature at 1% local temperature distribution was defined as extreme low temperature. According to the temperature-death risk curve, the death risk caused by chilling injury was calculated. The results showed that the temperature-death relationship curve of different temperature zones was U-shaped or J-shaped, and the extreme low temperature had the least effect on the northern subtropical zone. Its relative risk is 1.27% 95% CI: 0.94-1.72%; The effect on the middle subtropical zone is the biggest, and the relative risk is 1.93% 95 CI: 1.08-3.60. With the increase of temperature in the temperature zone, the influence of low temperature cold effect is "M" type. This feature is related to the economic development of different temperature zones. Therefore, the governments of different regions should not only focus on improving regional economic development, but also on the basis of regional characteristics. Take more active and effective measures to deal with the potential threat to local public health caused by low-temperature chilling hazards.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院;北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国人民财产保险股份有限公司湖州分公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571493、41571088) 教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划(B08008)
【分类号】：R122.21
【正文快照】： 3.北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875;4.中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心,北京100050;5.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;6.中国人民财产保险股份有限公司湖州分公司,湖州313000Analyzing the Spatial Differences of

【相似文献】