广义相加模型在气象因素对手足口发病影响研究中的应用

发布时间：2018-02-12 07:29

  本文关键词： 手足口病 季节 发病率 流行病学研究　出处：《中国学校卫生》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的分析气象因素对手足口病发病的影响,为传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法利用广义相加Quasi-Poisson模型,对北京市海淀区2008—2014年手足口周发病数的时间序列和同期气象因素的关系进行分析。结果北京市海淀区2008年1月1日至2014年12月31日手足口病共报告33 704例,平均周报92例,发病率为143.8/10万。其中男性20 718例,女性12 986例,男女性别比为1.60∶1。全年各月均有报告,发病高峰主要出现在5—8月,共发病24 460例,占发病总数的72.57%。2008—2014年发病率总体呈现上升趋势,其中2009年发病率最低,为94.2/10万(2 904例);2010年发病率最高,为216.9/10万(7 115例)。发病呈现明显的季节性,发病高峰主要集中在夏、秋季。当平均温度、相对湿度、日照时数分别超过阈值(9.1℃,40.2%,7.7 h)时,每增加1个单位,手足口发病人数分别增加4.81%(95%CI=3.99%~5.64%)、0.30%(95%CI=0.10%~0.50%)、2.02%(95%CI=0.63%~3.43%),且趋势均有统计学意义(P值均0.05)。当大气气压低于阈值(1 014.5 k Pa)时,大气气压每降低1 k Pa导致手足口发病人数增加5.76%(95%CI=4.52%~7.01%)。结论气象因素可能是手足口发病的一个重要影响因素,在今后的疾病防控工作中应予以考虑。广义相加模型可应用于分析手足口病与气候因素的相互关系。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods the generalized additive Quasi-Poisson model was used. The relationship between the time series of incidence of hand and foot mouth and meteorological factors in Haidian District of Beijing from 2008 to 2014 was analyzed. Results from January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2014, 33 704 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were reported in Haidian District, Beijing, with an average of 92 cases reported weekly. The incidence rate was 143.8 / 100,000,000. Among them, 20,718 males, 12,986 females and 1.60: 1.The incidence peak occurred in May to August, accounting for 24,460 cases, accounting for 72.57% of the total incidence in 2008-2014. In 2009, the incidence rate was the lowest (94.2 / 100 000) in 2 904 cases, and in 2010 the incidence rate was the highest (216.9 / 100 000 ~ 7 115 cases). The incidence showed obvious seasonality, and the peak of incidence was mainly in summer and autumn. When the mean temperature, relative humidity, When the hours of sunshine exceeded the threshold of 9.1 鈩，

本文编号：1505098