基于回顾性重排扫描统计量的血吸虫病重点流行区时空聚集性分析

发布时间：2018-02-15 01:44

本文关键词： 血吸虫病流行病学特征时空聚集性分析　出处：《中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的应用空间流行病学方法分析血吸虫病疫情特征,探索回顾性时空重排扫描统计量在湖沼型、山丘型血吸虫病流行区聚集性探测研究中的应用。方法分别收集2009-2014年江西省和2004-2013年云南省的血吸虫感染人群、耕牛和钉螺的疫情资料,进行描述性流行病学分析,并应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量方法 ,对江西省和云南省血吸虫病高风险传播区域的时空分布进行空间聚集性分析。结果 2009-2014年江西省人群、耕牛和钉螺的血吸虫感染率均呈逐年下降的趋势,人群和钉螺感染率分别由2009年的0.21%和0.03%下降至2014年的0.01%和0,耕牛感染率从2012年的1.25%下降至2014年的0.12%,其中人群感染率年平均变化百分比(APC)为-47.36%(P0.05);2009-2014年人群、耕牛和钉螺感染率均存在时空分布聚集性,分别探测出3、2和1个聚集区域,均位于环鄱阳湖地区。2004-2013年云南省人群、钉螺和耕牛血吸虫感染率呈逐年下降的趋势,2004年感染率分别为2.49%、0.70%和3.76%,至2013年,人群和钉螺感染率均为0,耕牛感染率下降为0.02%;其中人群感染率APC为-49.17%(P0.05);2004-2013年人群、钉螺和耕牛感染率均存在时空分布聚集性,分别探测出2、6和2个聚集区域。结论 2009-2014年江西省湖沼型和2004-2013年云南省山丘型流行区血吸虫病疫情均呈现下降趋势,回顾性时空重排扫描统计量分析均发现有人群、钉螺和耕牛感染率的聚集性区域,表明可用于分析血吸虫病时空分布特征。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the epidemic characteristics of schistosomiasis by using spatial epidemiological method, and to explore the spatial and temporal rearrangement statistics of schistosomiasis in the lake-marsh type. Methods the data of schistosomiasis infection population, tiller and snail in Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2014 and from 2004 to 2013 were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiology. The spatial and temporal distribution of the high risk transmission areas of schistosomiasis in Jiangxi Province and Yunnan Province was analyzed by using the retrospective Spatial-Temporal rearrangement scanning statistic method. Results the population of Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2014 was analyzed. The schistosomiasis infection rate of cultivated cattle and snail decreased year by year. The infection rates of population and snail decreased from 0.21% and 0.03% on 2009 to 0.01% and 0 on 2014, respectively. The infection rate of tiller decreased from 1.25% on 2012 to 0.12 on 2012. The infection rate of cultivated cattle and snail had spatial and temporal distribution and aggregation, which were located in the population of Yunnan Province from 2004 to 2013 in Poyang Lake area. The infection rate of snail and tiller Schistosoma japonicum decreased year by year, in 2004, the infection rate was 2.490.70% and 3.76%, respectively. By 2013, the infection rate of population and snail was 0, and the infection rate of cultivated cattle was 0.02.The infection rate of population APC was -49.17% and 0.05% from 2004 to 2013. The infection rates of Oncomelania hupensis and cultivated cattle were distributed and clustered in time and space, and two regions were detected respectively. Conclusion the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in the lake-type endemic areas of Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2014 and from 2004 to 2013 in the hilly endemic areas of Yunnan Province showed a downward trend. Retrospective statistical analysis of temporal and spatial rearrangement showed that there were clustered areas of infection rate of population, snail and tiller, which indicated that it could be used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of schistosomiasis.
【作者单位】：中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所世界卫生组织热带病合作中心科技部国家级热带病国际联合研究中心卫生部寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室;湖北民族学院;江西省寄生虫病防治研究所;云南省地方病防治所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.81101280,81660557,81502858) 国家传染病重大专项(No.2012ZX10004220,2012ZX10004-201,2016ZX10004222-004) 高分遥感监测项目(No.10-Y30B11-9001-14/16) 上海市公共卫生三年行动计划项目(No.GWIV-29,15GWZK0101) 中英全球卫生项目(No.GHSP202708)~~
【分类号】：R532.21;R181.3

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