2004-2015年中国大陆地区肺结核流行的时空分布特征

发布时间：2018-03-28 02:02

本文选题：结核病　切入点：地理信息系统　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年20期

【摘要】：目的探讨2004-2015年中国大陆结核病报告发病率的时空分布特征和流行趋势。方法收集2004-2015年中国大陆结核病报告发病率数据,应用地理信息软件Arcgis10.4和SaTScan9.4进行全局和局部空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析,探测发病的时空聚集性。结果中国大陆2004-2015年共报告结核病发病12 321 559例,死亡34 028例,发病率和死亡率整体上呈缓慢下降趋势。结核病在省级(自治区、直辖市)水平上年均发病情况差异较大,西北、西南和东北疫情严重。历年全局空间自相关分析显示,不同地区结核报告发病率呈空间正相关(均P0.05),Moran指数稳定。局部自相关分析显示,31个省(自治区、直辖市,不包括香港、澳门、台湾地区)结核病报告发病率呈高高值聚集和低低值聚集且具有统计学意义(P0.05)。时空聚集性分析共扫描出3个聚集区域,其中最大可能聚集区位于中西部地区(2005-2010年)。结论 2004-2015年中国大陆结核病发病存在明显的地区差异和空间聚集性,聚集范围不断扩大。西部的新疆、西藏、贵州、广西是重点防治区域。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution and epidemic trend of the reported incidence of tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015. Methods the data of reported incidence of tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015 were collected. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis were carried out by using geographic information software Arcgis10.4 and SaTScan9.4 to detect the temporal and spatial aggregation of the disease. Results 12 321,559 tuberculosis cases and 34 028 deaths were reported in mainland China from 2004 to 2015. The incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in the provincial level (autonomous region, municipality directly under the Central Government) showed a large difference in average annual incidence, and the epidemic situation in northwest, southwest and northeast was serious. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, The reported incidence of tuberculosis in different regions was positively correlated with the Moran index (P 0.05). Local autocorrelation analysis showed that 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, excluding Hong Kong, Macao), In Taiwan, the reported incidence rate of TB was high value aggregation and low value aggregation with statistical significance (P0.05). Spatio-temporal aggregation analysis showed that there were three aggregation regions. Conclusion the incidence of tuberculosis in the mainland of China from 2004 to 2015 has obvious regional differences and spatial aggregation, and the agglomeration range is constantly expanding. In the west of Xinjiang, Tibet, Guizhou, China, the largest concentration area is located in the central and western regions of China from 2005 to 2010. Guangxi is a key prevention and control area.
【作者单位】：广西医科大学公共卫生学院;桂林医学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(项目编号:81560523) 广西科学研究与技术开发项目(项目编号:14124005-2-11)
【分类号】：R181.3;R521

【相似文献】