2006-2015年江阴市肺结核流行特征与预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 21:17

本文选题：肺结核 + 流行特征　；参考：《现代预防医学》2017年09期

【摘要】：目的掌握江阴市2006-2015年肺结核流行特征,预测2016-2017年肺结核发病率,为制定防控策略提供科学依据。方法对江阴市2006-2015年肺结核疫情资料进行流行病学分析,应用灰色预测模型对未来两年江阴市肺结核流行趋势进行预测。结果 2006-2015年共报告肺结核发病数6 762例,年均发病率为45.00/10万,男女性别比为2.48∶1,发病年龄以20-40岁组青壮年居多,占发病总数的40.85%,发病职业以农民和民工为主,占58.46%。预测2016-2017年肺结核的发病率为30.78/10万、28.90/10万。结论江阴市肺结核疫情呈下降趋势,但仍应加强青壮年农民民工等重点人群防控工作。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the epidemic characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangyin city from 2006 to 2015 and forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in 2016-2017 to provide scientific basis for making prevention and control strategy. Methods Epidemiological data of tuberculosis epidemic in Jiangyin city from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed and the epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Jiangyin city in the next two years was predicted by using grey forecast model. Results from 2006 to 2015, 6 762 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported, with an average annual incidence of 45. 00 / 100 million. The sex ratio of male to female was 2. 48: 1. The age of onset was mostly in the age group of 20 to 40 years old, accounting for 40.85% of the total incidence. The occupation of the disease was mainly farmers and migrant workers, accounting for 58. 46%. The incidence of tuberculosis in 2016-2017 is predicted to be 30.78 / 100, 000 or 2890 / 100, 000. Conclusion the epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangyin city is decreasing, but it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of the key population such as young and middle-aged peasants and migrant workers.
【作者单位】：江阴市疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R181.3;R521

【相似文献】