广义相加模型在创伤急诊人次与气象要素时间序列相关分析中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-17 19:59

  本文选题：广义相加模型 + 气象因素　； 参考：《兰州大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年05期

【摘要】：探讨广义相加模型在分析气温、相对湿度等气象要素与医院日创伤疾病急诊人次相关性中的应用.收集北京3家综合性医院2008-2012年日创伤患者资料和同期北京市的气象和环境数据资料,根据赤池信息量准则,在控制长期趋势、短期波动、节假日效应以及污染条件等混杂因素的基础上,构建日创伤急诊就诊人次与气象要素之间的广义相加模型,并绘制暴露-反应关系曲线.经广义相加模型分析,医院日创伤急诊就诊人次与日均气温和气压表现出一定的线性正相关和负相关趋势,尤其是气温低于24.5℃时,气压介于1 007~1020hPa之间时,线性变化显著.与日均相对湿度和日照时数表现为复杂的非线性相关,当相对湿度为50%~70%时,相对危险度最高,当日照时数达到9 h时相对危险度最低.针对创伤疾病,利用广义相加模型进行气象要素的作用分析和拟合比较合理.
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the application of generalized additive model in analyzing the correlation between meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity and emergency attendances of daily trauma diseases in hospitals. Collect daily trauma patients' data from three general hospitals in Beijing from 2008 to 2012 and meteorological and environmental data from Beijing during the same period. According to the information quantity criteria of the red pool, they are controlling long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. On the basis of the mixed factors such as holiday effect and pollution condition, a generalized additive model between daily trauma emergency attendance and meteorological elements was established, and the relationship curve between exposure and response was drawn. The generalized additive model showed that there was a linear positive correlation and a negative correlation between the daily average temperature and air pressure, especially when the temperature was lower than 24. 5 鈩，

本文编号：1902658