RCP4.5情景下中国人口对高温暴露度预估研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 21:51

  本文选题：RCP. + 人口　； 参考：《地理研究》2016年12期

【摘要】：基于CMIP5的逐日最高温度模拟资料、GGI情景数据库逐年代人口数据,在RCP4.5情景下,以对应栅格高温日数与人口数量的乘积作为人口对高温的暴露度指标,通过多模式集合平均预估未来中国人口对不同强度高温的暴露度变化。结果表明:相比于基准时段(1981-2010年),中国人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度从2021-2040年开始明显增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分别增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中国西部部分地区外,全国大部地区人群均受高温的影响,在21世纪中后期中东部大部人口对高温的暴露度超过10.0×106人?d;相比基准时段,随着年代的增长,中国人口对强危害性高温的暴露度在范围和强度上均有明显增加;2081-2100年,人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度增幅减缓。从气象地理区域上看,未来各时段人口对高温、强危害性高温的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明显的区域主要集中在华北、黄淮、江南和江淮地区,华南地区对强危害性高温的暴露度增幅较小。高温日数变化对全国人口对高温暴露度的变化所产生的作用最明显。多模式集合的预估结果可以为防控未来高温风险提供重要的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily maximum temperature simulation data of CMIP5, the annual population data of GGI-scenario database is introduced. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the product of the corresponding raster high-temperature days and the number of population is taken as the index of population exposure to high temperature. The variation of population exposure to high temperature with different intensities in China is estimated by multi-model set average. The results show that, compared with the baseline period of 1981-2010, the exposure of Chinese population to high temperature and severe hazardous high temperature increased significantly from 2021-2040 to 2081-2100 by 5.7 times and 17.5 times respectively, except in some parts of western China. Most people in most parts of the country are affected by high temperature. In the middle and late 21st century, the exposure to high temperature of the majority of the population in the middle and eastern part of the century exceeded 10.0 脳 106 people / d, compared with the growth of the reference period, The population exposure to high hazardous high temperature in China has obviously increased in the range and intensity of 2081-2100, and the increase of population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature has slowed down. From the point of view of the meteorological and geographical regions, the population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature will increase to a certain extent in the future, but the areas with obvious increase are mainly in North China, Huanghuai, South Yangtze River and Jianghuai areas. The increase of exposure to strong hazardous high temperature in South China is relatively small. The change of the number of days of high temperature has the most obvious effect on the change of population's exposure to high temperature. The prediction results of multi-model set can provide important reference value for preventing and controlling the future high temperature risk.
【作者单位】： 国家气象中心;国家气候中心;南京信息工程大学气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心;国家卫星气象中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41101517)
【分类号】：R122.21
，

本文编号：1902993