长沙市流行性腮腺炎流行病学特征及模型预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 18:18

本文选题：流行性腮腺炎 + 流行特征　；参考：《兰州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的:探讨2006～2015年长沙市居民流行性腮腺炎的流行病学特征和疫情暴发情况,并借助传染病动力学模型(SEIAR模型)揭示流行性腮腺炎的发生发展规律,预测长沙市流行性腮腺炎的发病、暴发趋势及可能的患者人数,为卫生计生部门制定流行性腮腺炎的预警机制、防控策略和措施提供科学依据。方法:收集长沙市2006年1月1日~2015年12月31日疾病监测信息报告管理系统和突发公共卫生事件报告信息系统中的疫情数据,运用Excel2010和Spss19.0统计软件对其进行流行病学分析。运用Berkeley Madonna软件实验平台,将上述整理好的长沙市2006年1月1日至2015年12月31日流行性腮腺炎疾病资料作为模型数据库,构建传染病动力学SEIAR模型,基于动力学模型理论深入分析流行性腮腺炎在各人群各年龄段的传播规律。结果:(1)长沙市2006~2015年累计报告流行性腮腺炎病例28895例,年均发病率为43.73/10万,无死亡病例。(2)发病高峰出现在每年4月~7月,占总报告发病数的45.20%,其中5、6月最多,占全年发病总数的27.07%;次高峰在11月~12月及次年1月,占总报告发病数的25.59%。(3)年龄分布以3~15岁儿童青少年为主,占总病例数的81.96%。男女发病比例为1.58:1,年均发病报告率分别为32.46/10万和20.53/10万。(4)职业分布以学生、托幼儿童和散居儿童为主,占总报告发病数的88.02%。(5)2006~2015年长沙市9个区(县)均有报告疫情,共报告暴发疫情36起,暴发疫情中共报告病例967例,平均罹患率2.22%。疫情报告数最多的是岳麓区10起,占总报告数的27.78%,其次是宁乡县6起,占总报告数的16.67%,开福区最少为1起;疫情暴发时间主要集中在3月~6月、10月~12月,发生场所均在学校。(6)利用SEIAR模型深入分析流行性腮腺炎的发生发展规律,结果显示:3~5岁、6~14岁年龄组是在流行性腮腺炎发病中传播流行性腮腺炎病毒能力最强的人群,预测显示在未来一年里的冬春季仍是流行性腮腺炎发病的高峰期。结论:(1)长沙市流行性腮腺炎发病率整体成上升趋势,发病率在13.74/10万~70.83/10万间波动,形势不容乐观。(2)3~14岁是传播流腮病毒能力最强的年龄段,也是疾病高发年龄段;长沙市流行性腮腺炎表现明显的季节性,每年3~6月、10~12月份,即冬春季是流腮发病的高发期。(3)流行性腮腺炎暴发疫情在长沙市9个区(县)均有报告发生,且暴发地点在学校。(4)SEIAR模型对流行性腮腺炎发病率的拟合及预测效果较好,能较好地揭示流腮发生发展过程中各年龄段各人群的传播能力特点,但在实际应用中需要注意其他综合因素对结果的影响。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic situation of mumps in Changsha from 2006 to 2015, and to reveal the occurrence and development of mumps by means of epidemic dynamics model (SEIAR model). To predict the incidence, outbreak trend and the number of possible patients of mumps in Changsha City, to provide scientific basis for the establishment of early warning mechanism, prevention and control strategies and measures for mumps in health and family planning departments. Methods: the epidemic data of disease surveillance information management system and public health emergency report information system were collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 in Changsha City. The epidemiological data were analyzed by Excel2010 and Spss19.0 statistical software. The epidemic dynamics SEIAR model was constructed by using the Berkeley Madonna software experimental platform and the mumps disease data collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2015 in Changsha as a model database. Based on the kinetic model theory, the distribution of mumps in different age groups was analyzed. Results 28895 cases of mumps were reported in Changsha from 2006 to 2015, with an average annual incidence of 43.73 / 100, 000, and no death cases. The highest incidence occurred from April to July of each year, accounting for 45.20% of the total reported cases, of which the most was in May and June. The second peak was from November to December and the next January. The age distribution of the total reported incidence was 25.59. the age distribution was mainly among children and adolescents aged 15 years, accounting for 81.96% of the total number of cases. The incidence ratio of male to female was 1.58: 1, and the annual reported incidence rate was 32.46 / 100 thousand and 20.53% / 100 thousand respectively. The occupational distribution was mainly students, nursery children and children living in the diaspora, accounting for 88.02% of the total reported incidence. From 2006 to 2015, all the 9 districts (counties) in Changsha City had reported outbreaks. A total of 36 outbreaks were reported and 967 cases were reported, with an average attack rate of 2.22%. The most reported cases were in Yuelu District, accounting for 27.78% of the total number of reports, followed by 6 cases in Ningxiang County, 16.67% of the total number reported, and at least 1 case in Kaifu District. The outbreak time was mainly from March to June, October to December. The SEIAR model was used to analyze the occurrence and development of mumps. The results showed that the age group of 6 to 14 years of age was the most capable of spreading the mumps virus in the onset of mumps. Forecasts show that the winter and spring of the coming year will still be the peak for mumps. Conclusion (1) the incidence of mumps in Changsha is on the rise. The incidence rate fluctuates in the range of 13.74 / 100000 to 70.83 / 100, 000. The situation is not optimistic. The age of 314 years old is the age of the strongest ability to spread the gills virus, and the age of high incidence of the disease. The epidemic situation of mumps in Changsha City is obviously seasonal, and the outbreak of mumps is reported in 9 districts (counties) of Changsha City in December of March to June, that is, winter and spring. The incidence rate of mumps was fitted and predicted by SEIAR model in school, and it could reveal the characteristics of transmission ability of different age groups in the process of occurrence and development of gills. However, in practical application, attention should be paid to the influence of other comprehensive factors on the results.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.1

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