西安市空气污染物与出生缺陷的时序变化及相关性的生态学研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 10:13

本文选题：出生缺陷 + 空气污染　；参考：《西安交通大学学报(医学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：目的分析西安市出生缺陷、空气污染的趋势变化和季节规律,探讨空气污染暴露与出生缺陷结局的相关性。方法利用时间序列乘法模型,分解出生缺陷发病人数和空气污染物浓度的时间序列,描述二者的长期趋势及季节变动;采用生态学研究思路,分析出生缺陷与空气污染物的秩相关和交叉相关关系。结果 2010-2015年西安市空气污染分析结果显示,NO_2总体趋势在2013年出现上升,随后在高水平波动;SO_2总体呈缓慢下降趋势,但在2012和2013年出现2次高峰;PM_(10)总体趋势在2013和2014年出现2个小高峰,其余时间变化较为平稳;PM_(2.5)总体趋势呈现缓慢下降,但在2015年后出现小幅上升。2010-2015年西安市出生缺陷分析结果显示,总出生缺陷和先天性心脏病的长期趋势在2010~2014年呈上升态势,之后迅速下降;唇腭裂和神经管畸形的长期趋势在低水平小范围波动。空气污染物与出生缺陷的相关性分析结果显示,总出生缺陷、先天性心脏病在孕前3个月和孕早期3个月与NO_2正相关;先天性心脏病在孕前3个月与PM_(10)正相关。结论西安市出生缺陷、空气污染存在趋势变化及季节规律,妊娠妇女在孕前3个月和孕早期3个月暴露于NO_2与先天性心脏病的发生正相关。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between air pollution exposure and birth defect outcome by analyzing the trend and seasonal regularity of birth defects and air pollution in Xi'an. Methods using the time series multiplication model to decompose the time series of the number of birth defects and the concentration of air pollutants, to describe the long-term trend and seasonal variation of the two, and to adopt the ecological research ideas. The rank correlation and cross correlation between birth defects and air pollutants were analyzed. Results the results of air pollution analysis in Xi'an City from 2010 to 2015 showed that the overall trend of no 2 increased in 2013, and then fluctuated at a high level. But there were two peaks in 2012 and 2013.) the overall trend was two small peaks in 2013 and 2014, and the change in the rest of the time was more stable.) the overall trend showed a slow decline. However, the analysis of birth defects in Xi'an from 2010 to 2015 showed that the long-term trend of total birth defects and congenital heart disease increased from 2010 to 2014, and then decreased rapidly. Long-term trends in cleft lip and palate and neural tube abnormalities fluctuate at low levels and in small ranges. The results of correlation analysis between air pollutants and birth defects showed that total birth defects, congenital heart disease and congenital heart disease were positively correlated with NO_2 3 months before pregnancy and 3 months after pregnancy, while congenital heart disease was positively correlated with PMSP 10 at 3 months before pregnancy. Conclusion birth defects and air pollution in Xi'an city have trend change and seasonal regularity. NO_2 exposure to pregnancy at 3 months before pregnancy and early 3 months of pregnancy is positively related to the occurrence of congenital heart disease.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;西安市妇幼保健院;
【基金】：陕西省卫计委出生缺陷防治课题(No.sxwsjswzfcght2016-013) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81230016)~~
【分类号】：R174;X51

【相似文献】