我国道路交通环境税政策对居民健康影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 13:51

  本文选题：环境金融 + 道路交通环境税　； 参考：《中国农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国工业化、城镇化水平稳步提高,几乎保持着年均10%的增长,取得了举世瞩目的成绩。然而,随着近年来道路交通设施的持续大量投资,机动车保有量的快速增长,道路交通部门飞速发展,能源消耗大幅增加,导致其成为我国最主要的空气污染源之一,严重威胁着居民健康,成为我国实现可持续发展、保障居民健康福利以及提升人民生活水平的重大障碍。面对严峻的环境污染形势,我国道路交通部门能源环境政策主要以“节能减碳”为根本出发点和政策目标,往往忽视如PM2.5,CO,NOx等污染物造成的居民健康危害和经济损失。此外,很多研究仅考虑宏观视角的政策影响,缺乏道路交通能源需求的考量。最为重要的是,现有研究要么集中于道路交通污染排放估计,要么侧重于居民健康物理损害评估,缺乏“环境税——能源需求——污染排放——居民健康”的整体研究；也缺乏道路交通异质性及相应政策的考虑。因此,本文主要就我国道路交通污染排放异质性,道路交通环境税对能源消费影响,机动车增长与环境税对居民健康影响研究,基于道路交通异质性的环境税政策等问题展开研究。首先,本文实证研究了我国道路交通污染排放的异质性问题。本文以北京市为例,运用协整方法验证了客、货运子部门活动与空气污染数据(API)的长期均衡关系：并发现客运和货运活动均是空气污染指数的单向Granger原因。此外,脉冲反应表明,货运部门对API指数具有快速且剧烈影响,但持续时间较短,而货运部门开始对API指数影响较小,但持续时间却更长；结合方差分解结果发现,从长期来看,相对于货运部门,客运部门对空气污染负有更为主要责任。其次,本文对我国道路交通能源需求进行了实证估计,并在此基础上,研究了不同环境税税率对道路交通能源消费的影响。即本文分别基于我国2002至2012年,25个省级和306个市级地区的道路交通部门面板数据,运用双对数回归、AIDS、QUAIDS需求估计模型,估计了我国十种机动车能源需求价格弹性、支出弹性等关键参数,并发现不同方法估计得到的各类机动车能源需求弹性均为负值,而支出弹性值均为正值,且上述估计值几乎都是统计显著的。在此基础上,定量研究了5%,10%,25%,35%,45%五种税率情景下,我国各类型机动车燃油消费变化情况。再次,通过借鉴营养弹性的概念,本文构建了道路交通污染排放弹性的概念,用以估计机动车能源需求变化导致的污染排放变化；实证结果发现与能源需求价格弹性和支出弹性结果类似,污染排放价格弹性均为负值,而污染排放支出弹性均为正值。在此基础上,本文分别基于省级和市级数据,使用空气质量模型、居民健康及经济评估模型等,实证研究了不同机动车增长及不同道路交通环境税率对污染排放及居民健康损失的影响。最后,本文还研究了一系列基于道路交通异质性的环境税政策。首先对我国道路交通环境税(以燃油税为主)改革进程、主要作用和意义进行了分析和总结,并发现其主要不足。然后,基于客、货运部门异质性的环境税政策研究发现,对客运部门征收环境税,导致的总污染排放量降低要高于对货运部门征收环境税的效果。然而,由于对货运部门征税引起的NOx减排值要明显高于客运部门的减排值。因此,从居民健康影响角度而言,对货运部门征收环境税的效果要比客运部门征税效果更为明显。基于公共与私人交通部门异质性的环境税政策研究结果发现,不论是从空气污染排放的角度,还是从居民健康角度而言,对城市私人部门征收环境税的政策效果明显高于针对公共部门的环境税效果。基于燃油异质性的环境税政策研究结果发现,从我国居民健康福利的角度考虑,柴油税税率的健康影响远高于汽油税的影响。综上所述,随着我国道路交通部门的快速发展,能源过度消耗,空气污染排放和居民健康损害问题愈发严重。而本文以道路交通能源需求为切入点,并考虑到道路交通异质性,对道路交通环境税的健康影响进行深入研究和定量估计,在该领域的研究中尚属首次。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the level of China's industrialization and urbanization has steadily improved, almost maintaining an average annual growth of 10%, which has made remarkable achievements. However, with the continuous large investment in the road traffic facilities in recent years, the rapid growth of the motor vehicle ownership, the rapid development of the road transport department and the substantial increase in energy consumption have led to it becoming me. One of the most important sources of air pollution in China is a serious threat to the health of the residents. It has become a major obstacle to the sustainable development of our country, to ensure the health and welfare of the residents as well as to improve the living standard of the people. In the face of the severe environmental pollution situation, the energy and environmental policy of the road traffic department of our country is mainly based on the "energy saving and carbon reduction" as the fundamental starting point and policy. The objective is to ignore the health hazards and economic losses of residents, such as PM2.5, CO, NOx and other pollutants. In addition, many studies only consider the policy impact of macro perspective and lack the consideration of road traffic energy demand. Most importantly, the current research is either focused on road traffic pollution emission estimates, or focus on health physical damage to residents. It lacks the overall study of "environmental tax - energy demand - pollution emissions - residents' health" and the lack of road traffic heterogeneity and corresponding policy considerations. Therefore, this paper mainly deals with the heterogeneity of road traffic pollution emission in China, the impact of road traffic environment tax on energy consumption, motor vehicle growth and environmental tax on Residents The study of health impact is based on the environmental tax policy of road traffic heterogeneity. First, this paper empirically studies the heterogeneity of road traffic pollution emission in China. This paper, taking Beijing as an example, uses co integration method to verify the long-term equilibrium relationship between passenger transport sub sector activities and air pollution data (API). Both passenger and freight activities are one of the one-way Granger reasons for the air pollution index. In addition, the pulse response shows that the freight sector has a rapid and violent impact on the API index, but the duration is shorter, while the freight sector has begun to have less impact on the API index, but the duration is longer; the results of the junction variance decomposition found that, in the long run, relative to the index In the freight department, the passenger transport department is more responsible for air pollution. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical study of the road traffic energy demand in China, and on this basis, studies the impact of different environmental tax rates on road traffic energy consumption. This article is based on the road of 25 provincial and 306 municipal areas in China from 2002 to 2012. The road traffic department panel data, using the double logarithmic regression, AIDS, QUAIDS demand estimation model, estimated the key parameters such as price elasticity and expenditure elasticity of ten kinds of motor vehicles in China, and found that the energy demand elasticity of all kinds of motor vehicles estimated by different methods are negative, and the elastic value of expenditure is positive, and the above estimated value is a few. All of them are statistically significant. On this basis, the change of fuel consumption of various types of motor vehicles in China under the 5%, 10%, 25%, 35%, 45% five tax rates is studied. Again, by using the concept of nutrition elasticity, this paper constructs the concept of road traffic pollution emission elasticity, in order to estimate the pollution discharge caused by the change of motor vehicle energy demand. The empirical results show that the price elasticity of the energy demand is similar to the energy demand elasticity and expenditure elasticity, and the elasticity of the pollution emission price is negative, and the elasticity of the pollution discharge expenditure is positive. On the basis of the provincial and municipal data, this paper uses the air quality model, the residents' health and the economic evaluation model and so on. In the end, a series of environmental tax policies based on the heterogeneity of road traffic are also studied. First, the main role and significance of the reform process, the main role and the significance of the road traffic environment tax (based on fuel tax) in China are analyzed and summarized. Then, based on the study of the environmental tax policy based on the heterogeneity of the freight department, it is found that the collection of environmental tax on the passenger transport department is higher than the effect of the environmental tax on the freight department. However, the NOx emission reduction value caused by the taxation of the freight department is obviously higher than the emission reduction value of the passenger transport department. From the point of view of the health impact of the residents, the effect of levying environmental tax on the freight department is more obvious than that of the passenger transport sector. The results of the environmental tax policy based on the heterogeneity of public and private transportation departments have found that, from the perspective of air pollution emissions, or from the health perspective of the residents, the private sector of the city is on the basis of the residents' health. The effect of the policy on environmental tax is obviously higher than the environmental tax effect on the public sector. Based on the environmental tax policy of fuel heterogeneity, it is found that the health effect of diesel tax rate is much higher than the effect of gasoline tax on the health welfare of our residents. The problem of excessive consumption of sources, emission of air pollution and health damage of residents is becoming more and more serious. This paper, taking the road traffic energy demand as the breakthrough point, and taking into account the heterogeneity of road traffic, makes a thorough study and quantitative estimation of the health impact of road traffic environmental tax. It is still the first time in this field.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：R122;F812.42
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本文编号：1951105