武汉市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 02:32

本文选题：气温 + 心脑血管系统疾病　；参考：《气象科技》2016年03期

【摘要】：根据武汉市2004年1月1日至2008年12月31日每日居民死亡资料和同期气象指标及大气污染指标,采用非线性分布滞后模型,在控制季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究日均气温与心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡数之间的关系。结果表明:武汉市日均气温对心脑血管疾病死亡效应和呼吸系统疾病死亡效应曲线均为J形。冷效应具有延迟性,心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病的死亡效应均在低温滞后1天开始出现,4天达到最高,并持续8~20天。热效应表现为急性效应,两种疾病死亡效应均以当天最高,持续2天,呈现出明显的收获效应,随时间的延长而减小。由此可知,高温和低温均是武汉市居民心脑血管疾病和呼吸系统疾病每日死亡的危险因素,存在滞后效应。两种疾病低温效应的滞后时间长于高温效应。
[Abstract]:According to the daily death data, meteorological index and air pollution index of Wuhan from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2008, the nonlinear distribution lag model was used to control the seasonal trend and other mixed factors. To study the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. The results showed that the curve of death effect of daily air temperature on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory system disease in Wuhan was J shape. The cold effect was delayed, the death effect of cardio-cerebrovascular disease and respiratory system disease reached the highest in 4 days after 1 day delay of hypothermia, and lasted for 8 to 20 days. The heat effect was acute, the death effect of the two diseases was the highest on the same day and lasted for 2 days, which showed obvious harvest effect and decreased with the prolongation of time. It can be seen that both high temperature and low temperature are the risk factors of daily death of heart and cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases in Wuhan. The lag time of low temperature effect of two diseases is longer than that of high temperature effect.
【作者单位】：湖北省气象服务中心;武汉区域气候中心;
【基金】：上海市科学技术委员会“气象与健康”课题11DZ2260900资助
【分类号】：R122.21

【相似文献】