2001-2010平凉市孕产妇死亡率分析及预测研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 09:06

本文选题：孕产妇死亡率 + 通径分析　；参考：《兰州大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的了解2001-2010年平凉市孕产妇死亡率现况及其变化趋势,分析孕产妇死亡的死因构成以及各种社会因素对孕产妇死亡率的影响,并预测未来十年平凉市孕产妇死亡率变化趋势,为有效地预防和控制平凉市孕产妇死亡,降低孕产妇死亡率提供科学依据。方法根据平凉市2001-2010年的孕产妇死亡率及各影响因素的指标数据,采用描述统计的方法对平凉市孕产妇死亡率的现况、变化趋势、死因顺位及影响平凉市孕产妇死亡率的各个社会因素的基本情况进行分析;通过对其单因素相关分析和通径分析法找出影响平凉市孕产妇死亡率的直接影响因素和间接影响因素；并采用灰色预测模型对平凉市2011-2020年孕产妇死亡率状况和变化趋势做出预测。结果 2010年平凉市所辖灵台县和庄浪县孕产妇死亡率低于全国和甘肃省平均水平；2001-2010年平凉市各区县孕产妇死亡率在波动中整体呈下降趋势；平凉市孕产妇死因构成无大的变化,产科出血为第一顺位,羊水栓塞所占比例上升；影响平凉市孕产妇死亡率的直接原因为住院分娩率、通电话的村数、农村女童入学率和新农合参合率；GDP和地方财政收入等通过不同途径间接地影响着平凉市孕产妇死亡率；2020年泾川县和华亭县孕产妇死亡率将会低于全国和甘肃省平均水平,其他各县将会远高于全国和甘肃省平均水平；至2011-2020年间泾川县、华亭县、崇信县孕产妇死亡率呈下降趋势,其他区县略有上升。结论平凉市各区县孕产妇死亡率虽整体呈下降趋势,但下降速度缓慢。尤其崇信县和静宁县问题较为突出；产科出血依然是平凉市各区县的第一死因顺位,羊水栓塞所占孕产妇死亡原因构成比呈上升趋势；影响孕产妇死亡率的原因较多,其中以住院分娩率为主要直接影响因素,经济状况不同程度直接或间接地影响着平凉市各区县孕产妇死亡率。
[Abstract]:Objective to understand the current situation and trend of maternal mortality in Pingliang City from 2001 to 2010, and to analyze the causes of maternal mortality and the influence of various social factors on maternal mortality. The change trend of maternal mortality in Pingliang city in the next ten years is forecasted to provide scientific basis for effectively preventing and controlling maternal mortality and reducing maternal mortality in Pingliang city. Methods according to the index data of maternal mortality and its influencing factors in Pingliang City from 2001 to 2010, the present situation and trend of maternal mortality in Pingliang City were analyzed by descriptive statistical method. The causes of death and the basic social factors affecting the maternal mortality rate in Pingliang City were analyzed. Through the single factor correlation analysis and path analysis to find out the direct and indirect influencing factors of maternal mortality in Pingliang city; The grey prediction model was used to predict the maternal mortality rate and its changing trend in Pingliang City from 2011 to 2020. Results in 2010, the maternal mortality rate of Lingtai County and Zhuanglang County under Pingliang City was lower than the average level of the whole country and Gansu Province from 2001 to 2010. There was no significant change in the composition of maternal mortality in Pingliang city, obstetric hemorrhage was the first rank, amniotic fluid embolism accounted for an increasing proportion, and the direct cause of maternal mortality in Pingliang city was the rate of hospital delivery and the number of villages through telephone. The rate of enrolment of girls in rural areas and the rate of participation in rural areas, such as GDP and local revenue, indirectly affect the maternal mortality rate in Pingliang by different means; in 2020, the maternal mortality rate in Jingchuan County and Huating County will be lower than the national average and the average level in Gansu Province. The other counties will be far above the national and Gansu average; by 2011-2020, the maternal mortality rate in Jingchuan, Huating and Chongxin counties will be on a downward trend, while in other districts the maternal mortality rate will increase slightly. Conclusion the mortality rate of pregnant and lying-in women in Pingliang city is decreasing, but the decreasing speed is slow. Especially in Chongxin County and Jingning County, the problem of obstetrical hemorrhage is still the first cause of death in Pingliang City, the proportion of maternal mortality caused by amniotic fluid embolism is on the rise, and the causes of maternal mortality are many. Among them, the rate of hospital delivery is the main direct factor, and the economic situation directly or indirectly affects the maternal mortality rate in Pingliang district and county.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：R173

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