北京市大气污染与呼吸系统疾病死亡的相关性——基于卫星遥感数据的时空分析

发布时间：2018-07-05 03:57

本文选题：颗粒物 + 呼吸系统疾病　；参考：《北京大学学报(医学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：目的:利用垂直湿度校正法校正气溶胶光学厚度(aerosol optical depth,AOD),并探索校正AOD作为衡量大气污染程度的指标与人群健康结局建立暴露反应关系的可行性。方法:先采用空间插值方法对AOD、地面PM_(2.5)、相对湿度和边界层高度进行插值以获得不同地理位置的各项数据,按照地理位置与北京市呼吸系统疾病死亡数据进行匹配。利用大气边界层高度及由相对湿度计算得到的气溶胶吸湿增长因子分别对AOD进行垂直校正与湿度校正。为进行对比,将校正AOD和PM_(2.5)采用标准化法进行无量纲化处理,使用广义相加混合模型,控制时间趋势、温湿度效应、星期几效应和节假日效应等,得到无量纲化后的校正AOD与PM_(2.5)对北京市居民每日呼吸系统疾病总死亡和慢性阻塞性肺病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)死亡的急性效应。结果:经过垂直湿度校正后的AOD与PM_(2.5)相关系数达到0.72。累积滞后0~3 d(lag 0~3)的标准化校正AOD对呼吸系统疾病总死亡数及COPD死亡数的累积滞后效应最强,每升高1个单位,超额危险度分别为3.64%(95%CI为0.58%~6.78%)和4.92%(95%CI为1.81%~8.14%)。累积滞后0~1 d(lag 0~1)的标准化PM_(2.5)对呼吸系统疾病死亡及COPD死亡的累积滞后效应最强,每升高1个单位(约155μg/m3),超额危险度分别为3.96%(95%CI为0.82%~7.19%)及6.12%(95%CI为1.44%~11.02%)。与地面PM_(2.5)的效应相比,校正AOD引起呼吸系统疾病死亡及COPD死亡效应的置信区间较窄,对于捕捉颗粒物对居民每日死亡的滞后效应更为敏感;且不同累积滞后天数的校正AOD对呼吸系统疾病死亡及COPD死亡的效应均具有统计学意义,对于捕捉颗粒物对于居民死亡的累积滞后效应更为敏感。结论:校正AOD可以反映地面颗粒物对北京市居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响,在缺乏地面监测的情况下,可以使用校正AOD作为衡量大气污染物的指标与人群健康结局建立暴露反应关系。
[Abstract]:Aim: to correct aerosol optical thickness (aerosol optical) by vertical humidity correction (VH), and to explore the feasibility of calibrating aerosol optical thickness (AOD) as an indicator of air pollution and establishing a relationship between exposure response and healthy outcome of the population. Methods: AODs, ground PM2.5, relative humidity and boundary layer height were interpolated by spatial interpolation method to obtain the data of different geographical locations, and matched with the death data of respiratory diseases in Beijing. The atmospheric boundary layer height and the aerosol moisture absorption growth factor calculated from the relative humidity were used for vertical correction and humidity correction of AOD, respectively. In order to compare, the calibration AOD and PM2.5 are processed in a dimensionless way with standardization method, and the generalized additive mixed model is used to control the time trend, the effect of temperature and humidity, the effect of days of the week and the effect of holidays, etc. The acute effects of dimensionless corrected AOD and PM2.5 on the total daily death of respiratory diseases and the death of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic obstructive pulmonary) in Beijing residents were obtained. Results: the correlation coefficient between AOD and PM2.5 was 0.72 after vertical humidity correction. The cumulative lag of 0 ~ 3 d (lag / 0 ~ (3) was the highest in the total mortality and mortality of respiratory diseases. The excess risk was 3.64% (95 / 95 CI = 0.58 ~ 6.78%) and 4.92% (95 / 95 CI = 1.81 / 8.14%) for each unit of increase. The cumulative lag effect of PM _ (2.5) on death and death from respiratory diseases was strongest. For every unit (about 155 渭 g/m3), the excess risk was 3.96% (95CI = 0.82CI, 7.19%) and 6.12% (95 CI = 1.4411.02%), respectively. Compared with the surface PM2.5 effect, the confidence interval of the effects of AOD on respiratory system death and COPD death was narrower, and more sensitive to the lag effect of particulate matter capture on the daily death of residents. The effects of AOD on respiratory disease death and COPD death were statistically significant, and the cumulative lag effect of particulate matter capture was more sensitive to residents' death. Conclusion: the corrected AOD can reflect the effect of surface particulate matter on the daily respiratory disease death in Beijing residents, and it can not be monitored on the ground. Calibration AOD can be used as a measure of atmospheric pollutants and health outcomes of the population to establish an exposure response relationship.
【作者单位】：北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(81372950) 环境保护部公益项目(201409081)资助~~
【分类号】：R122;R56

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