北京市顺义区大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响

发布时间：2018-08-23 21:26

【摘要】：目的探讨北京市顺义区大气污染物对医院呼吸系统疾病门诊量的短期影响。方法收集2014年1月1日-2015年12月31日北京市顺义区二级及以上医疗机构呼吸系统疾病每日门诊资料和同期北京市顺义区大气及气象监测资料,采用基于时间序列的半参数广义相加模型,在控制长期趋势、星期效应、假期效应、流感流行及气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,分析大气污染物浓度与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的关系及滞后效应。结果研究期间,北京市顺义区二级及以上医疗机构呼吸系统疾病日门诊量平均为1653人次,范围420~5034人次。单污染物模型中,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10-2.5)、二氧化硫(SO_2)和二氧化氮(NO_2)均是滞后0~2d(avg02)的移动平均值对呼吸系统疾病门诊人数影响最为显著,臭氧(O_3)是在滞后3d(lag3)的浓度值对呼吸系统疾病门诊人数影响最为显著。PM_(2.5)、PM_(10-2.5)、SO_2、NO_2和O_3浓度每增加10μg/m~3对应的呼吸系统疾病门诊人数增加百分比分别为0.25%(95%CI:0.22~0.28)、0.52%(95%CI:0.44~0.60)、0.73%(95%CI:0.58~0.88)、1.23%(95%CI:1.12~1.33)和0.20%(95%CI:0.16~0.24)。在双污染物模型中,引入NO_2后,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10-2.5)和SO_2对呼吸系统疾病门诊人数影响较单污染物模型明显减小。结论北京市顺义区大气污染物PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2和O_3浓度对医院呼吸系统疾病日门诊量有影响,且存在滞后效应。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the short-term effect of air pollutants on outpatient diagnosis of respiratory diseases in Shunyi District, Beijing. Methods from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2015, the daily outpatient data of respiratory diseases in the second class and above medical institutions in Shunyi District, Beijing, and the atmospheric and meteorological monitoring data in Shunyi District, Beijing, were collected during the same period. A semi-parametric generalized additive model based on time series is used to control mixed factors such as long-term trend, week effect, holiday effect, influenza epidemic and meteorological factors. The relationship between the concentration of air pollutants and the daily outpatient volume of respiratory diseases and the lag effect were analyzed. Results during the study period, the average daily outpatient number of respiratory diseases in the second class and above medical institutions in Shunyi District of Beijing was 1653 person-times, ranging from 420 to 5034. In the single pollutant model, the moving average of PM2.5 PM10-2.5, SO_2 and NO_2 were the most significant factors affecting the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases. The concentration of O _ 3 (O _ 3) delayed 3 days (lag3) had the most significant effect on the number of outpatients with respiratory diseases. PM_ (2.5) / PM_ (10-2.5) / so _ 2no _ 2 and O _ 3 concentrations increased by 0.25% (95%CI:0.22~0.28) 0.52% (95%CI:0.44~0.60) 0.73% (95%CI:1.12~1.33) and 0.20% (95%CI:0.16~0.24) for each 10 渭 g/m~3 increase in the concentration of O _ 3 and O _ 3, respectively. In the dual-pollutant model, the effects of PM2.5 and SO_2 on the outpatient population of respiratory diseases were significantly reduced after the introduction of NO_2. Conclusion the concentrations of PM_ _ (2.5) so _ 2O _ 2 and O _ S _ 3 in Shunyi District of Beijing have an effect on the daily outpatient examination of respiratory diseases in hospitals, and there is a lag effect.
【作者单位】：北京市顺义区疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R122;R56

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