基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型
发布时间：2018-09-14 14:41
【摘要】：目的探讨我国手足口病发病与气象因素的关系,建立基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。方法收集2010-2014年全国31个省市手足口病月发病率资料和当地同期气象资料;利用Spearman相关分析、Logistic回归分析筛选影响手足口病发病的气象危险因素;应用哈佛疾病风险指数模型建立预测模型;采用ROC曲线下面积评价模型优劣。结果影响手足口病高发的气象危险因素分别为月平均气温12~22℃(OR=13.922)、月平均气温大于22℃(OR=25.932)、标准大气压地区(OR=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(OR=1.439)及月平均湿度大于70%(OR=1.597)。根据以上气象因素建立手足口病发病风险预测模型,并绘制风险评估图,模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.810。结论气象因素对手足口病的发生、发展过程存在影响;成功建立了基于气象因素的手足口病发病风险预测模型。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors in China and to establish a prediction model of HFMD risk based on meteorological factors. Methods monthly morbidity data of HFMD and local meteorological data were collected from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2014. The meteorological risk factors affecting HFMD were screened by Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis. The prediction model is established by using the Harvard disease risk index model, and the area evaluation model under the ROC curve is used. Results the meteorological risk factors affecting the high incidence of HFMD were monthly mean temperature 1222 鈩，
本文编号：2243005
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors in China and to establish a prediction model of HFMD risk based on meteorological factors. Methods monthly morbidity data of HFMD and local meteorological data were collected from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2014. The meteorological risk factors affecting HFMD were screened by Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis. The prediction model is established by using the Harvard disease risk index model, and the area evaluation model under the ROC curve is used. Results the meteorological risk factors affecting the high incidence of HFMD were monthly mean temperature 1222 鈩，
本文编号：2243005
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