兰州市气象因素对居民健康影响的研究

发布时间：2018-11-05 19:53

【摘要】：目的：了解兰州市气象因素变化规律,探讨气象因素对居民呼吸系统疾病和心脑系血管疾病日入院人数的影响,建立暴露反应关系,为疾病预防控制提供科学依据。方法：用SPSS13.0对气象因素和疾病资料进行Pearson相关分析,用时间序列GAM模型,在控制时间、“星期几”效应、污染物等混在因素的基础上,分析气象因素对居民健康(不同性别、年龄别及疾病别)的影响。结果：(1)气温(包括日最高气温、最低气温及平均气温)、相对湿度、露点温度、能见度、风速等气象因素年际变化呈现倒“V”型；平均气压、相对湿度在春季最低秋季最高其他气象因素则在冬季最低、夏季最高；日平均气温、日最高气温、平均气压、相对湿度、风速有逐年上升趋势,日最低气温、露点温度和能见度呈现降低趋势。(2)Pearson相关分析结果显示,呼吸系统疾病与气温、相对湿度、露点温度、能见度等呈显著相关(P0.01),与能见度相关性最强,相关系数为-0.189；心脑血管疾病与气温、相对湿度、风速等呈现显著相关(P0.01),与风速相关性最强,相关系数为0.136。(3)兰州市气象因素对呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病的影响多表现为滞后效应,比较不同因素对疾病RR值发现,所有人群中,女性、儿童及老年人群相对其他人群更为敏感(RR较大),日平均气温对女性呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病影响最大,RR分别为1.182和1.289,日最低气温对儿童呼吸系统疾病影响最大,RR为1.263,日最高气温和日平均气温分别对老年人群呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病影响最大,RR分别为1.155和1.135。结论：兰州市气象因素均表现出明显的周期性变化,且对呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病的影响多表现为滞后效应。根据GAM模型计算出的RR值可以对呼吸系统疾病和心脑血管疾病的发病率进行预测,为疾病的防治提供依据。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the changes of meteorological factors in Lanzhou City, and to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the number of people admitted to hospital on the day of respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular diseases of heart and brain system, and to establish the relationship of exposure response to provide scientific basis for disease prevention and control. Methods: SPSS13.0 was used to analyze the Pearson correlation between meteorological factors and disease data. The time series GAM model was used to control the time, the "day of the week" effect, the pollutant and so on, on the basis of the factors, such as the control time, the "day of the week" effect, the pollutant, etc. To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on residents' health (sex, age and disease). Results: (1) the interannual variation of temperature (including daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and mean temperature), relative humidity, dew point temperature, visibility, wind speed and other meteorological factors showed an inverted "V" pattern; The mean pressure and relative humidity are the lowest in spring and the highest in autumn. Other meteorological factors are the lowest in winter and the highest in summer. The daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, mean air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed increased year by year, and the daily minimum temperature, dew point temperature and visibility showed a decreasing trend. (2) Pearson correlation analysis showed that respiratory diseases and air temperature, Relative humidity, dew temperature and visibility were significantly correlated (P0.01), and the correlation coefficient was -0.189; Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were significantly correlated with air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (P0.01), and had the strongest correlation with wind speed. The correlation coefficient is 0.136. (3) the effects of meteorological factors on respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Lanzhou City are mostly lagged effects. Comparing the RR values of different factors on diseases, we found that, in all population, women, Children and elderly people were more sensitive (RR) than other populations. The daily mean temperature had the greatest effect on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women, RR was 1.182 and 1.289 respectively. The effects of daily minimum temperature on respiratory diseases of children were the greatest, RR was 1.263, and daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature had the greatest influence on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the elderly, RR were 1.155 and 1.135 respectively. Conclusion: the meteorological factors in Lanzhou have obvious periodic changes, and the effects on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are mostly lag effects. The RR values calculated by GAM model can predict the incidence of respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and provide basis for the prevention and treatment of diseases.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X16;R122.26

【参考文献】