圆分布的平均角及其区间估计方法在传染病发病高峰评估中的应用探讨

发布时间：2018-12-12 03:28

【摘要】：目的探讨圆分布在传染病发病高峰研究中的应用策略。方法以四类传染病数据为基础,圆分布方法分析各病种流行规律,采用两种区间估计方法计算发病高峰期。结果圆分布方法适用于单峰分布或略呈现双峰分布的传染病,对于双峰分布传染病,圆分布的雷氏检验并不能给出合理的结果;采用bootstrap计算发病高峰期区间过窄,标准差法结果较为合理。结论利用圆分布方法研究传染病的流行规律时,应当先作折线图以便对该病种流行规律有宏观了解,流行高峰应当结合折线图和雷氏检验结果观察,对传染病发病高峰期的计算,采用加减标准差法比bootstrap法更具优势。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application strategy of circular distribution in the study of peak incidence of infectious diseases. Methods based on the data of four kinds of infectious diseases, the epidemic pattern of each disease was analyzed by circular distribution method, and the peak period was calculated by two interval estimation methods. Results the circular distribution method is suitable for infectious diseases with single peak distribution or slightly bimodal distribution. For bimodal distribution infectious diseases, the Rayleigh test of circular distribution can not give a reasonable result. Using bootstrap to calculate the peak interval is too narrow and the result of standard deviation method is reasonable. Conclusion when using the circular distribution method to study the epidemic law of infectious diseases, we should first make a broken line map in order to have a macroscopic understanding of the epidemic law of the disease, and the epidemic peak should be observed in combination with the broken line map and the results of the Rayleigh test. To calculate the peak period of infectious disease, the addition and subtraction standard deviation method is superior to bootstrap method.
【作者单位】：江苏省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：江苏省“十二·五”科教兴卫工程(ZX201109)
【分类号】：R181.3

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