热浪对济南市非意外死亡及主要死因别死亡影响的生态学分析

发布时间：2019-01-29 19:10

【摘要】：目的探讨热浪对济南市居民非意外死亡及主要死因别死亡的影响及其特征。方法收集济南市2013年5—8月和2014年5—8月的逐日死亡资料和气象资料,应用生态学分析比较热浪期与非热浪期非意外死亡及主要死因别死亡情况,采用广义相加模型对热浪死亡效应进行评估。结果研究期间济南市共发生4次热浪,共19 d。热浪期非意外死亡、循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病、肿瘤、脑血管疾病和急性心肌梗死的日均死亡人数均高于非热浪期,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。广义相加模型结果显示,热浪对非意外死亡、循环系统疾病、脑血管疾病、急性心肌梗死的死亡有影响,并存在滞后效应,最佳滞后期分别为2、2、1、1 d,对应的OR(95%CI)分别为2.07(1.73~2.71),1.68(1.30~2.21),1.52(1.36~2.14),1.38(1.12~2.87)。结论热浪能明显增加济南市居民非意外死亡、循环系统疾病、脑血管疾病、急性心肌梗死的死亡风险,该效应发生迅速且有明显的滞后期。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the influence and characteristics of heatwave on non-accidental death and major causes of death of residents in Jinan. Methods the daily death data and meteorological data were collected from May to August 2013 and from May to August 2014 in Jinan City. Ecological analysis was used to compare the non-accidental death and the major causes of death between heat wave and non-heat wave. A generalized additive model is used to evaluate the effect of heat wave death. Results there were 4 heat waves in Jinan for 19 days. The daily average death rates of non-accidental death circulatory diseases respiratory system diseases tumors cerebrovascular diseases and acute myocardial infarction in heat wave period were significantly higher than those in non-heat wave period (P0.05). The results of the generalized additive model showed that the heat wave had an effect on the death of non-accidental death, circulatory system disease, cerebrovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction, and there was a lag effect. The corresponding OR (95%CI) were 2.07 (1.732.71), 1.68 (1.300.21), 1.52 (1.362.14), 1.38 (1.122.87), respectively. Conclusion Heat-wave can significantly increase the mortality risk of non-accidental death circulatory system disease cerebrovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction in Jinan.
【作者单位】：济南市疾病预防控制中心慢病防制所;悉尼大学公共卫生学院中国研究中心;山东大学公共卫生学院气候与健康研究中心;
【基金】：原卫生部2013年中央转移支付项目
【分类号】：R122.2

【参考文献】