基于德尔菲法评估日照市蚊媒传染病流行风险

发布时间：2019-07-04 08:24

【摘要】：目的通过风险评估,探讨日照市乙脑、疟疾、登革热、丝虫病、基孔肯雅热和西尼罗热6种蚊媒传染病发生的可能性、危害性、人群易感性及综合风险大小,为针对性地开展蚊虫媒介防治,做好当地蚊媒传染病的防控提供依据。方法应用德尔菲法,邀请各相关领域专家评分,最后根据既定风险评估方案,计算6种蚊媒传染病传播流行风险等级,综合评价蚊媒传染病的风险大小。结果通过3轮专家风险评估,专家积极系数为1.00,3个方面的权威系数分别为0.71、0.74和0.72,协调系数分别为0.69、0.66和0.67,专家意见趋势一致。对单个蚊媒传染病病种/聚集性疫情在日照市传播流行的可能性、危害性和易感性进行综合分析,乙脑(8.58)和疟疾(8.01)综合风险为高,登革热(7.77)的综合风险为中等,丝虫病(5.94)、基孔肯雅热(4.61)和西尼罗热(4.10)的综合风险为低。结论日照市今后蚊媒传染病防控工作应重点关注风险高和较高的蚊媒传染病。完善相应蚊媒传染病应急预案,定期开展蚊虫媒介的监测,努力做好蚊媒传染病的防控工作。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the possibility, harmfulness, population susceptibility and comprehensive risk of six mosquito-borne infectious diseases including Japanese epidemic, malaria, dengue fever, filariasis, chikungunya fever and West Nile fever in Rizhao City, so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases in Rizhao. Methods according to the established risk assessment scheme, the epidemic risk grades of 6 kinds of mosquito-borne infectious diseases were calculated and the risk of mosquito-borne infectious diseases was comprehensively evaluated. Results through three rounds of expert risk assessment, the positive coefficient of experts was 1.00, the authority coefficient of the three aspects was 0.71, 0.74 and 0.72, and the coordination coefficient was 0.69, 0.66 and 0.67, respectively. The possibility, harmfulness and susceptibility of single mosquito-borne infectious disease / aggregation epidemic in Rizhao city were analyzed synthetically. The combined risk of Japanese epidemic (8.58) and malaria (8.01) was high, that of dengue fever (7.77) was moderate, and that of filariasis (5.94), chikungunya fever (4.61) and West Nile fever (4.10) was low. Conclusion the prevention and control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases in Rizhao should focus on the high risk and high risk of mosquito-borne infectious diseases. We will improve the corresponding emergency plans for mosquito-borne infectious diseases, regularly carry out mosquito vector monitoring, and strive to do a good job in the prevention and control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases.
【作者单位】：山东省日照市人民医院;山东省疾病预防控制中心;
【基金】：山东省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:ZR2011HM033) 山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(编号:2014WS0386)
【分类号】：R181.3

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