酒后血液和呼气中乙醇含量的关系及数学模型建立

发布时间：2018-06-06 18:05

本文选题：呼气中乙醇浓度 + 血醇浓度　；参考：《中国全科医学》2017年29期

【摘要】：目的研究酒精呼气测定仪测得的呼气中乙醇含量(BrAC)与顶空气相色谱法(HS-GC)检测的血液乙醇含量(BAC)的关系,建立线性模型,以实现由BrAC对BAC的预测。方法选取2016年2—12月贵阳市涉嫌酒驾的53例健康驾驶员进行研究,检测BrAC与BAC,以BrAC为自变量(X),BAC为因变量(Y),绘制散点图,并建立线性模型。结果以BrAC与BAC数据拟合曲线得到曲线方程为Y=1.2982X-5.0175,R~2=0.95。采用简单随机抽样法抽取11个样本,用所得线性模型进行预测,并与样本实测值进行对比,预测值与实测值有较大偏差;去掉常数项,修改模型,得到曲线方程Y=1.2294X,R~2=0.99,2、3、8样本预测值与实测值相差较大,残差平方和(SSE)=621.70;对BAC取对数,得到线性方程:lnY=0.0166X+3.2185,R~2=0.93,预测值与实测值均相差不大,SSE=239.06。结论可以用lnY=0.0166X+3.2185模型来实现BrAC对BAC的预测。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the relationship between the alcohol content in the breath measured by the alcohol breath detector and the blood alcohol content measured by headspace gas chromatography (HS-GC) and to establish a linear model to predict BAC by BrAC. Methods 53 healthy drivers suspected of drinking driving in Guiyang from February to December 2016 were studied. BrAC and BACwere detected. BAC as independent variable was used as dependent variable, scattered plot was drawn and linear model was established. Results the curve equation of BrAC and BAC data was Y _ (1.2982X-5.0175) Ru _ (2.95). Eleven samples were sampled by simple random sampling, and the linear model was used to predict, and compared with the sample measured value, the predicted value was deviated greatly from the measured value, the constant item was removed, and the model was modified. The predicted values of the curve equation Y _ (1.2294X) ~ (0.99) ~ (2) ~ (2) ~ (3) ~ (3) ~ (8) are quite different from the measured values, and the sum of the squared residuals is 621.70, and the linear equation is obtained by taking logarithm of the BAC equation: lnY 0.0166X 3.2185R ~ (20.93), and the difference between the predicted values and the measured values is not different from that of the actual values. Conclusion the prediction of BAC by BrAC can be realized by using the model of lnYG 0.0166X 3.2185.
【作者单位】：贵州警官职业学院;贵州省道路交通事故鉴定工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：贵州省道路交通事故鉴定工程技术研究中心研究项目([2015]10021号)
【分类号】：D919.1

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