急性高原病易感人群预测模型、方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 22:17

本文关键词：急性高原病易感人群预测模型、方法研究　出处：《第三军医大学》2002年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 急进高原时，无论是从平原进入高原，还是从低海拔区进入高海拔区，人群中不可避免的要出现“急性高原病”（acute mountain sickness, AMS）。据资料报道，部队急进高原时AMS发病率很高，往往造成大量非战斗减员。许多研究指出，人群中的确存在着AMS易感人群，因此，如果能对其进行预测、筛选，避免易感者进入高原，可以从“源头”上控制AMS发生的人群基数，是减少AMS发生的一个实用、有效和经济的方法。本课题着眼大部队急进高原，在以往“硬科学”（高原医学等）研究基础上，采取“软科学”方法，对现有研究成果进行分析、评价和系统综合，建立一个简便、高效、准确的AMS易感人群预测体系，构建AMS易感人群预测模型，形成适于大部队急进高原，，具有可操作性的AMS易感人群预测方案，将高原医学研究成果转化成现实高原卫勤保障能力。本课题首先对AMS易感人群进行了科学的定义。通过文献调研和高原现场实地调查，系统整理了现有的AMS易感人群预测指标。在此基础上，运用系统分析、专家咨询法、AHP方法对AMS易感人群预测指标进行了筛选，根据目标一致性原则、客观可靠性原则、直接可测性原则、简单易行性原则和动态发展性原则，建立了AMS易感人群预测指标体系，并科学地确定了指标权重和指标体系权集。之后，根据综合预测数学模型基本原理和模型方法，结合AMS易感人群预测实际，选用了加权线性综合法，建立了《急性高原病易感人群预测模型》。在模型的实证研究中，通过Kappa值法，对一组60名青年战士的预测结果与实际发病情况进行了 WP=7 验证，取得相当满意的一致程度（Kappa值≈0.86＞0.75）。最后，拟定了《大部队急进高原急性高原病易感人群预测方案》，并利用计算机技术，实现数据的采集、计算和评价的自动化。
[Abstract]:When moving rapidly into the plateau, whether from the plain to the plateau, or from the low-altitude area into the high-altitude area. It is inevitable that acute high altitude disease (AMS) will occur in the population. According to the data, it is necessary to develop acute high altitude disease (AMS). The incidence of AMS is very high when troops rush into high altitude, which often results in a large number of non-combat attrition. Many studies have pointed out that there is indeed a population susceptible to AMS in the population, therefore, if it can be predicted, it can be screened. It is a practical, effective and economical method to reduce the incidence of AMS by avoiding the susceptible person from entering the plateau and controlling the population base of AMS from the source. On the basis of the previous "hard science" (plateau medicine, etc.) research, the subject adopts the "soft science" method to analyze, evaluate and synthesize the existing research results. To establish a simple, efficient, accurate AMS susceptible population prediction system, to build a AMS susceptible population prediction model, to form a suitable for large troops to enter the plateau, has the maneuverability of AMS susceptible population prediction program. The achievements of plateau medical research will be transformed into the actual health support ability of plateau. This paper firstly defines the susceptible population of AMS scientifically. Through literature investigation and field investigation on the plateau, this paper systematically arranges the existing prediction index of susceptible population of AMS. On this basis. By means of systematic analysis, expert consultation and AHP method, the prediction indexes of susceptible population of AMS were screened. According to the principle of objective consistency, objective reliability and direct testability. Based on the principle of simplicity and dynamic development, the prediction index system of susceptible population of AMS is established, and the weight of index and the weight set of index system are scientifically determined. According to the basic principle and method of comprehensive prediction mathematical model, combined with AMS susceptible population forecasting practice, the weighted linear synthesis method is selected. In the empirical study of the model, the prediction results of 60 young soldiers and the actual incidence of the disease were studied by using Kappa value method. WP=7 The results showed that the Kappa value was 0.86 > 0.75. Finally, the prediction scheme of population susceptible to acute plateau disease was developed. And the use of computer technology, data acquisition, calculation and evaluation of automation.
【学位授予单位】：第三军医大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：R82

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