基于灰色预测模型的核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用分析

发布时间：2018-06-14 16:23

本文选题：核事故医学应急 + 灰色预测　；参考：《数学的实践与认识》2013年19期

【摘要】：建立了核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用分析模型,且通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用进行预测分析,解决了传统方法因数据缺乏而预测精度不足的问题。并用实际数据对预测模型进行了精度验证,结果表明该方法具有很好的预测精度,可用于核事故医学应急装备使用保障费用的预测和估算,为相关部门经费分配提供决策支持,对加强核事故医学应急装备全系统、全寿命的经济技术可行性论证,提高决策水平、计划的科学性和经费整体使用效益都具有重要意义.
[Abstract]:In this paper, an analysis model of the support cost of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment is established, and the use support cost of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment is forecasted and analyzed by GM1 / 1) grey forecasting model. It solves the problem that the traditional method is not accurate enough because of lack of data. The accuracy of the prediction model is verified by the actual data. The results show that the method has good prediction accuracy and can be used to predict and estimate the cost of the nuclear accident medical emergency equipment, and to provide decision support for the allocation of funds in the relevant departments. It is of great significance to strengthen the whole system of nuclear accident medical emergency equipment, to demonstrate the economic and technical feasibility of the whole life span, to improve the level of decision making, to plan scientifically and to use the funds as a whole.
【作者单位】：海军医学研究所防护医学研究室;国防大学军事后勤与科技装备教研部;海军蚌埠士官学校机械系;
【基金】：总后科研基金(AWS10B026) 海军医学研究所基金(10HY22)
【分类号】：TL73;R82

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