恶性肿瘤住院量与住院费用的ARIMA乘积季节模型预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 19:52

本文选题：恶性肿瘤　切入点：ARIMA乘积季节模型　出处：《中国卫生统计》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的探讨自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)乘积季节模型在恶性肿瘤住院量与住院费用中的应用,为医院恶性肿瘤业务管理提供科学依据。方法收集某院2007-2016年逐月恶性肿瘤住院患者资料,采用ARIMA乘积季节模型对2007-2015年逐月恶性肿瘤的住院人次和住院费用进行模型拟合,用2016年逐月数据评价其预测效果,并预测2017年恶性肿瘤逐月住院人次与住院费用。结果 ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)_(12)是恶性肿瘤住院人次与住院费用的最佳拟合预测模型,拟合相对误差分别为1.1%和1.47%。根据ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,0)_(12)预测结果,2017年恶性肿瘤住院量将达7631人次,住院费用将达3.36亿元。结论 ARIMA季节乘积模型能很好地应用于医院业务管理预测中。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the application of autoregressive and moving average Arima (ARIMA) product seasonal model in the hospitalization of malignant tumor and to provide a scientific basis for the management of malignant tumor in hospital. Methods the data of the hospitalized patients with malignant tumor from 2007 to 2016 were collected. The ARIMA product seasonal model was used to fit the monthly hospitalization and hospitalization expenses of malignant tumors from 2007 to 2015. The prediction effect was evaluated with the monthly data of 2016. In 2017, the number of patients admitted to the hospital and the cost of hospitalization were predicted. Results Arima was the best fitting model for predicting the number of patients with malignant tumor and the cost of hospitalization. The relative error of fitting is 1.1% and 1.47.According to the prediction result of Arima, the hospitalization volume of malignant tumor will reach 7631 in 2017, and the cost of hospitalization will reach 336 million yuan. Conclusion the ARIMA seasonal product model can be applied to the prediction of hospital business management.
【作者单位】：中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院;浙江大学医学院附属邵逸夫医院病案室;
【分类号】：R197.323;R73-31

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