休谟哲学中的概率思想研究
发布时间：2019-05-06 06:58
【摘要】：本文是基于休谟1739年出版的《人性论》第一卷第三部分‘'Of knowledge and probability(在关文运的译作中被翻译为‘论知识和概然推断’)”的解读和分析来全面阐述休谟哲学中的概率思想,以及休谟概率思想研究的现实意义。并指出,休谟哲学对概率本质界定的推进及休谟对于概率的分类,都具有重要的理论价值。 首先,就概率本质而言,无论是数理概率还是或然性问题,本质上都是由已知事件来预测未知结果,区别仅仅在于我们如何界定未知。其次,休谟对概率问题的思考在他的整个哲学思想中扮演十分重要的角色。他通过对“已知”范围的界定和对因果关系的梳理,将概率(probability)分为机会(chance)概率与原因(cause)概率,并认为对机会概率的研究是为了引出对原因概率的探讨。之后,休谟将原因概率分为三类,其中第二类非恒常结合的原因概率揭示了一种新的概率思想——我们所计算出的所有的概率,都只是对已知结果的描述,人类能够预测未知结果的唯一可能是找出所有影响结果的原因。 同时,休谟认为,传统因果关系中的由“已知推测出未知”的确定性实际上是不存在的；与之相反,曾被认为神秘莫测的“机会”实际上是披着不确定性外衣的潜在的“原因”。在此基础之上,本文论述了概率思想在休谟所试图建立的人性科学中扮演的角色。无论是从怀疑主义哲学、关于神迹的论证以及关于道德的论述上,概率思想是一条贯穿始终的主线。 本文主要有三个方面的写作意义：第一,本文在国内外文献综述的基础上全面阐述休谟概率思想的来龙去脉,为休谟概率思想的解读提供了历史资料：第二,本文为解读“休谟问题”提供了新的视角并对概率思想本质的界定做出了讨论。第三,论述了休谟概率的现实指导意义,给休谟概率提供了详细的历史背景和理论沿袭。 奉文共分为六章,各章的要点如下 第1章,绪论部分。介绍了休谟概率的研究意义,国内外休谟概率的研究现状以及本文拟采用的文献和方法。 第2章，在前人的研究基础上介绍了休谟概率思想诞生的思想脉络，以休谟撰写《人性论》的几个关键地点为线索，讲述了1722年到1739年《人性论》第一卷出版期间，休谟思想的成长与变化。 第3章，分别讨论了在研究休谟概率思想之前需要澄清的四个问题。分别为"probability"一词的理解和翻译,《人性论》中为何会存在概率思想，“观念”的定义对理解概率思想的重要性以及“休谟问题”的重新定义等等。 第4章，基于《人性论》第一卷详细讲述了休谟概率主要内容。其中包括休谟对于概率的分类，概率思想与因果关系、与信念等重要概念之间的关系等重要问题。 第5章，应用 第6章，结论
[Abstract]:This thesis is based on Hume's interpretation and analysis of the theory of human nature published by Hume in 1739, the third part of'Of knowledge and probability (in the translation of Guan Wenyun'as'on knowledge and generality inference') to explain the probability thought in Hume's philosophy in an all-round way. And the practical significance of Hume's thought of probability. It also points out that Hume's philosophy advances the definition of probability essence and Hume's classification of probability has important theoretical value. First of all, as far as probability essence is concerned, whether it is mathematical probability or probability problem, it is essentially the prediction of unknown results by known events. The difference lies only in how we define the unknown. Secondly, Hume's thinking of probability plays a very important role in his whole philosophical thought. By defining the scope of "known" and combing the causal relationship, he divides the probability (probability) into the probability of opportunity (chance) and the probability of cause (cause), and thinks that the study of probability of opportunity is to lead to the discussion of the probability of cause. After that, Hume divided the probability of reason into three categories, and the second kind of non-constant combination of the probability of reason reveals a new idea of probability-all the probabilities we have calculated are just descriptions of known results. The only possibility that humans can predict unknown results is to find out all the causes of the effects. At the same time, Hume believes that the certainty of "known conjecture is unknown" in the traditional causal relationship is actually non-existent; By contrast, the once-mysterious "opportunity" is actually a potential "cause" in the coat of uncertainty. On this basis, this paper discusses the role of probability in the science of human nature that Hume is trying to establish. No matter from the skepticism philosophy, the argumentation of miraculous signs and the discussion of morality, probability thought is a main thread that runs through all the time. This paper has three main aspects of writing significance: first, on the basis of literature review at home and abroad, this paper comprehensively explains the origin and context of Hume's probability thought, which provides historical data for the interpretation of Hume's probability thought: second, This paper provides a new perspective for the interpretation of Hume's problem and discusses the definition of the nature of probability. Thirdly, it discusses the practical guiding significance of Hume probability, and provides a detailed historical background and theoretical inheritance for Hume probability. Fengwen is divided into six chapters, the main points of each chapter are as follows: chapter 1, introduction. This paper introduces the significance of Hume probability research, the current situation of Hume probability research at home and abroad, and the literature and methods to be adopted in this paper. Chapter 2, on the basis of previous studies, introduces the thought context of Hume's birth of probability thought, taking several key locations of Hume's theory of human nature as clues, and tells the period from 1722 to 1739 during the publication of the first volume of the Theory of Human Nature. The growth and change of Hume's thought. In chapter 3, we discuss four problems that need to be clarified before studying Hume's probability thought. They are the understanding and translation of the word "probability", the reason why probability thought exists in the Theory of Human Nature, the importance of the definition of "concept" in understanding probability thought, and the redefinition of "Hume's problem" and so on. In chapter 4, based on the theory of human nature, the main contents of Hume's probability are discussed in detail. These include Hume's classification of probability, the relationship between probability thought and causality, and the relationship between belief and other important concepts. Chapter 5, Application Chapter 6, conclusions
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：B561.291
本文编号：2469973
[Abstract]:This thesis is based on Hume's interpretation and analysis of the theory of human nature published by Hume in 1739, the third part of'Of knowledge and probability (in the translation of Guan Wenyun'as'on knowledge and generality inference') to explain the probability thought in Hume's philosophy in an all-round way. And the practical significance of Hume's thought of probability. It also points out that Hume's philosophy advances the definition of probability essence and Hume's classification of probability has important theoretical value. First of all, as far as probability essence is concerned, whether it is mathematical probability or probability problem, it is essentially the prediction of unknown results by known events. The difference lies only in how we define the unknown. Secondly, Hume's thinking of probability plays a very important role in his whole philosophical thought. By defining the scope of "known" and combing the causal relationship, he divides the probability (probability) into the probability of opportunity (chance) and the probability of cause (cause), and thinks that the study of probability of opportunity is to lead to the discussion of the probability of cause. After that, Hume divided the probability of reason into three categories, and the second kind of non-constant combination of the probability of reason reveals a new idea of probability-all the probabilities we have calculated are just descriptions of known results. The only possibility that humans can predict unknown results is to find out all the causes of the effects. At the same time, Hume believes that the certainty of "known conjecture is unknown" in the traditional causal relationship is actually non-existent; By contrast, the once-mysterious "opportunity" is actually a potential "cause" in the coat of uncertainty. On this basis, this paper discusses the role of probability in the science of human nature that Hume is trying to establish. No matter from the skepticism philosophy, the argumentation of miraculous signs and the discussion of morality, probability thought is a main thread that runs through all the time. This paper has three main aspects of writing significance: first, on the basis of literature review at home and abroad, this paper comprehensively explains the origin and context of Hume's probability thought, which provides historical data for the interpretation of Hume's probability thought: second, This paper provides a new perspective for the interpretation of Hume's problem and discusses the definition of the nature of probability. Thirdly, it discusses the practical guiding significance of Hume probability, and provides a detailed historical background and theoretical inheritance for Hume probability. Fengwen is divided into six chapters, the main points of each chapter are as follows: chapter 1, introduction. This paper introduces the significance of Hume probability research, the current situation of Hume probability research at home and abroad, and the literature and methods to be adopted in this paper. Chapter 2, on the basis of previous studies, introduces the thought context of Hume's birth of probability thought, taking several key locations of Hume's theory of human nature as clues, and tells the period from 1722 to 1739 during the publication of the first volume of the Theory of Human Nature. The growth and change of Hume's thought. In chapter 3, we discuss four problems that need to be clarified before studying Hume's probability thought. They are the understanding and translation of the word "probability", the reason why probability thought exists in the Theory of Human Nature, the importance of the definition of "concept" in understanding probability thought, and the redefinition of "Hume's problem" and so on. In chapter 4, based on the theory of human nature, the main contents of Hume's probability are discussed in detail. These include Hume's classification of probability, the relationship between probability thought and causality, and the relationship between belief and other important concepts. Chapter 5, Application Chapter 6, conclusions
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：B561.291
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前4条
1 陈晓平;休谟问题与动态大弃赌定理[J];华南师范大学学报(社会科学版);1998年03期
2 王幼军;甄玉君;;帕斯卡尔赌注的数学思想及其逻辑结构[J];上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版);2013年04期
3 陈晓平;主观主义概率论对于休谟问题的“解决”[J];自然辩证法通讯;1994年01期
4 张志林;休谟因果问题的重新发现及解决[J];哲学研究;1998年05期
，本文编号：2469973
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/zhexuezongjiaolunwen/2469973.html
