居民日常活动对扒窃警情时空格局的影响

发布时间：2018-03-09 13:31

本文选题：扒窃　切入点：日常活动理论　出处：《地理学报》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：扒窃现象与居民的日常活动有较强的关系,已有文献研究了不同活动场所对扒窃的影响,但鲜有考虑不同类型居民活动出行量及其场所对扒窃影响的时间差异。本文基于日常活动理论,以南方某大城市为例,以派出所为分析单元,利用居民入户调查问卷、兴趣点(Point of Interest,POI)、扒窃报警数据,检验不同类型活动出行量与扒窃的时间相关性,并划分时间段,建立多个空间滞后负二项回归模型分析不同时段居民日常活动对应场所与扒窃的关系。研究发现,扒窃警情存在明显的时空集聚性,其中,凌晨和早上的集聚性最强,白天和晚上相对较弱;不同类型的日常活动对扒窃时空格局的作用存在差异。买菜活动出行量与扒窃的时间变化存在正相关关系,买菜场所在凌晨和早上容易吸引扒窃者;购物活动与扒窃亦存在较强的时间正相关,白天和晚上在购物场所附近被盗的风险较高;外出吃饭的出行量与扒窃行为无直接关系,但在凌晨和早上餐馆周边容易吸引扒窃者;娱乐活动与扒窃同样存在较强的时间正相关,不同类型的娱乐场所对扒窃的影响存在差异,电影院、酒吧在大部分时间段均会吸引犯罪者,凌晨时段KTV附近区域的被盗风险较高。场所对扒窃的影响主要与犯罪机会吸引(犯罪目标的丰富性、暴露性)及场所自身属性有关(是否为犯罪者的集聚地)。文中最后对时间地理学和犯罪地理学结合的可能性、研究的应用意义等方面进行了探讨。
[Abstract]:The phenomenon of pickpocketing has a strong relationship with the daily activities of residents. The influence of different activity places on pickpocketing has been studied in the literature. However, it is rare to consider the time difference between different types of activities and the influence of the place on pickpocketing. Based on the theory of daily activities, this paper takes a large city in southern China as an example, takes the police station as an analysis unit, and makes use of the household questionnaire. Point of interest Point of InterestPoi, pickpocketing alarm data, to test the time correlation between different types of activity travel and pickpocketing, and divide the time period, A multiple spatial lag negative binomial regression model was established to analyze the relationship between the corresponding places of residents' daily activities and pickpocketing in different periods of time. It was found that the police situation of pickpocketing had obvious spatial and temporal agglomeration, among which, the concentration in the early morning and in the morning was the strongest. The effect of different types of daily activities on the spatial and temporal pattern of pickpocketing is different. There is a positive correlation between the amount of shopping activities and the time variation of pickpocketing, and pickpockets are easily attracted in the early morning and morning. There is also a strong correlation between shopping activities and pickpocketing, the risk of theft in the vicinity of shopping places is higher during the day and night, the amount of going out to eat is not directly related to pickpocketing, but it is easy to attract pickpockets in the early morning and around the restaurants in the morning. There is also a strong temporal correlation between entertainment and pickpocketing. Different types of entertainment have different effects on pickpocketing. Cinemas and bars attract offenders for most of the time. The risk of theft is high in the area near KTV in the early hours of the morning. The influence of the place on pickpocketing is mainly related to the attraction of the crime opportunity (the richness of the crime target, Finally, the possibility of the combination of temporal geography and criminal geography, and the application significance of the research are discussed.
【作者单位】：中山大学地理科学与规划学院综合地理信息研究中心;广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室;

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